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El Niño is currently forming over the Pacific Ocean, thousands of miles away from the UK, but its effects are expected to influence weather patterns globally. While countries like Peru and Ecuador face higher risks of flooding and landslides, and Australia confronts threats of droughts and wildfires, the reverberations of this climate phenomenon extend well beyond these regions. The shifting global wind patterns caused by El Niño mean that the UK could experience changes in its weather, particularly during the autumn and early winter months. According to the Met Office, there is a growing probability that these seasons will be wetter and stormier than usual, although it’s important to note that no two El Niño events are identical, so this outcome is not guaranteed.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the Met Office, described the current developing El Niño as unprecedented in the records of modern climate. He explained that as the event peaks toward the end of 2026, its influence will spread worldwide. In the UK, signs are already emerging of increased rainfall and storminess expected especially from November through December. Following what is likely to be the UK’s hottest summer on record with ongoing drought conditions across large parts of the country, a wetter autumn might seem beneficial. Nonetheless, the threat of severe storms also comes with increased risks of flooding, and strong winds could potentially lead to damage, transport disruptions, and power outages. The winter spanning 2015 to 2016, coinciding with a very strong El Niño, brought a series of intense storms, which experts at the time labeled some of the most extreme flooding ever recorded in the UK.
When it comes to winter temperatures, El Niño’s influence is less certain. It has sometimes been linked to colder weather during late winter, but the connection is inconsistent. For example, the Big Freeze of 2009/2010—the coldest winter in thirty years—occurred alongside an El Niño event. Conversely, the 2006/2007 El Niño winter was unusually mild. Forecasting further into the future increases uncertainty, so while El Niño may heighten the chance of colder spells early in 2027, this outcome is not assured.
Looking ahead to next summer, a strong El Niño globally tends to raise average temperatures by about 0.2°C. Although this might seem modest, combined with ongoing human-driven climate change, it could amplify the likelihood of heatwaves worldwide. The specific impact of El Niño on UK summer weather, however, remains unclear. Dr Akshay Deoras, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, emphasized that the primary driver behind the UK’s increasing temperatures and extreme heat risk continues to be long-term global warming. While it is too soon to make firm predictions about next summer, Dr Deoras noted that the combination of El Niño’s additional warming with the already warmer UK climate might create favorable conditions for a hot summer season
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