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The UK is on track to experience its hottest summer since records began, according to data from the Met Office. Current provisional figures reveal that the average temperature for meteorological summer so far, spanning 1 June to 10 August, stands at 16.48°C. This is 1.88°C higher than the 1991-2020 average baseline. For comparison, summer 2025 saw the nationwide mean temperature at 16.10°C. Only typical weather conditions for the remainder of August are needed for 2026 to exceed the previous temperature record set just last year, underscoring the warming trend linked to climate change.
This summer has been marked by an extraordinary sequence of heatwaves. A record-breaking heatwave in late spring set a new high for May, followed by further intense heat periods in June and a prolonged two-week heatwave in July. Numerous locations across the UK have experienced multiple heatwave days this summer, culminating in 37 consecutive days with heatwaves occurring somewhere in the country. The peak temperature recorded so far reached 38°C at Lingwood, Norfolk, on 26 June. The Met Office has even issued an amber extreme heat warning for some areas of England, highlighting the possibility of equalling or surpassing this temperature later in the week. Notably, the last occasion temperatures went above 36°C in August was back in 2020.
Several heat-related records have been shattered during this summer. For the first time on record, temperatures of 35°C or higher have been observed in three separate calendar months—May, June, and July—with forecasts suggesting August will join as the fourth such month. July this year was the driest on record since 1836 in both England and Wales, with southern England experiencing its driest single month ever. By mid-July, the UK surpassed the total number of days over 30°C recorded during 1976, a year famously remembered for its enduring heatwave.
The extended dry and warm conditions have led to significant impacts on water supplies. Over two-thirds of England and all of Wales have been officially declared in drought, affecting approximately 45 million people in England, more than 27 million of whom face restrictions on water use. The outlook for the coming week remains dry across much of England and Wales, although there are tentative signs that rain-bearing weather fronts from the Atlantic might arrive by Sunday. These are expected to bring some relief, particularly in Wales and southern England, although any rainfall is unlikely to be heavy or sustained, and for many it will be the first meaningful rain in nearly two months.
The underlying cause of this unusually hot summer is the prolonged dominance of high-pressure weather systems, which have led to persistent dry and warm conditions—characteristics consistent with climate change projections. Rising global temperatures, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, have increased the likelihood and severity of hot weather events. It is now expected that May, June, July, and August will all record temperatures exceeding 35°C this year, a stark contrast to the late 20th century when such highs were rare. Scientists caution that while year-to-year variations will continue, the overall trend will be towards hotter summers, with future heatwaves reaching even higher temperatures as carbon emissions continue to warm the planet
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