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Since the appointment of the new prime minister nearly two weeks ago, opinion polls have consistently indicated what is now being called a “Burnham bounce” for the Labour Party. This uptick in support has been reinforced by Labour’s convincing win in Thursday’s Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election. Recent polling data shows Labour averaging support in the mid-20% range, marking their highest figures since early last year. This is a notable improvement compared to the 19% rating Labour received in late June, just as Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation as leader.
Historically, new prime ministers often experience a boost in popularity shortly after taking office, and the current situation aligns with this trend. For example, Labour gained seven percentage points when Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in 2007, and the Conservatives saw a six-point rise following Boris Johnson’s succession of Theresa May in 2019. The only exception in recent memory was Liz Truss in 2022, whose tenure was overshadowed by the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, preventing any noticeable rise in support. Given the very low starting point from which Burnham began—Labour’s 19% rating at Sir Keir’s departure being the weakest handed over by any prime minister mid-term—it was almost expected that the party would receive some immediate lift once a popular figure took charge.
Despite the positive swing, Labour remains distant from the 35% support level they secured in the 2024 general election. Burnham’s current average poll rating, though improved, is still the lowest for any newly appointed mid-term prime minister. Nevertheless, Labour’s performance in the recent Manchester mayoral election exceeded expectations. The party garnered 47% of the first preference vote, substantially ahead of the 24% Labour achieved across the region in the May local elections and even surpassing its share locally during the last general election. Although this figure was down from the 63% that Andy Burnham himself won in the previous mayoral race, it nonetheless signals strong local support.
Reform UK, which had been narrowly leading Labour in recent polls, has encountered significant difficulties in the past few weeks. The party has been engulfed in controversy concerning the legality of some of its funding sources and whether Nigel Farage properly disclosed certain funds received before becoming an MP. Following these allegations, Farage announced on 7 July that he would resign and contest a by-election in Clacton set for 13 August. This decision seems to have had a negative impact, with Reform’s poll average dropping from 27% before the announcement to 24% afterward—their lowest ratings in over a year. Farage’s personal ratings have also declined sharply. In Greater Manchester, Reform’s share of the vote fell by nine points compared to May’s local elections, partly due to competition from a breakaway party, Restore Britain, which managed to outperform the Conservatives in the mayoral contest.
Another factor behind Labour’s resurgence has been a shift of support away from the Green Party and Liberal Democrats, both of which have seen a two-point decline since Burnham secured the Labour leadership without opposition. The Greens, in particular, have been hurt by the new prime minister’s entrance; many of their recent gains came from voters who
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