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As November begins, the UK is settling into a period dominated by high pressure, bringing generally dry and stable weather but with a marked chill. Throughout the week, expect a blend of patchy clouds, intermittent sunshine, and a few isolated showers. Overnight conditions are likely to be cold, with frost and fog developing especially across northern and western regions. Temperatures are forecast to hover around or just below the seasonal average, feeling particularly crisp in southern England and south Wales due to a fresh easterly breeze.
This calm start to November contrasts with October’s more turbulent weather. Preliminary data from the Met Office reveals that the entire UK experienced 13% more rainfall than usual for October. While all regions saw above-average precipitation, northern Scotland stood out with rainfall 31% above the long-term average. The latter part of the month brought the most intense wet weather, largely due to Storms Austen and Boelo. Significantly, 24 October has been tentatively recorded as the UK’s joint-sixth wettest day on record.
Despite the heavy rains, the Environment Agency has noted that England just finished its wettest week in two years, yet this was insufficient to ease drought concerns that persist after the hottest summer on record. Moreover, October was not only wetter but also sunnier, ranking as the fifth-sunniest October since records began in 1910. Temperatures were generally warmer too, averaging 0.9°C above normal, with Shetland experiencing its joint-sixth warmest October. This month marked the UK’s ninth consecutive month with above-average temperatures.
Looking ahead, the jet stream responsible for steering the recent storms has shifted north, allowing high pressure to dominate and keep rainfall at bay during the first days of November. This pattern is expected to continue, although a brisk easterly wind will sweep across southern and eastern England on Tuesday, bringing gusts up to 30-40 mph in some coastal areas and the Channel Islands. Showers will be most frequent in East Anglia and southeast England, while northern and western parts of the country will mainly remain dry with sunshine and patchy cloud. Nighttime temperatures will dip, with frost and fog likely in northern rural areas, whereas the windier south will stay mostly clear of fog.
Later in the week, conditions will largely remain similar, with frost and fog persisting overnight in northern parts and daytime spells of sunshine interrupted by occasional showers. Temperatures are set to fall by a degree or two across many areas. Towards the weekend, a weak low-pressure system is predicted to move north from France, potentially bringing scattered rain across the UK. Following this, a brief dry period may develop early next week, but weather models suggest that high pressure will weaken, making way for wetter and windier Atlantic systems. However, there is considerable uncertainty, with no clear indications of any major storms in the near future
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