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Jonathan Powell, the United Kingdom’s national security adviser, has emphasized that Europe must brace for significant difficulties this winter to maintain economic pressure on Russia. Speaking publicly at a conference in Kyiv, Powell argued that Europe’s combined approach of backing Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow is proving effective. He dismissed concerns about possible Russian escalations as indications that pressure on President Vladimir Putin is working rather than as setbacks.
During his address, Powell urged European countries not to relax sanctions despite the looming energy shortages that the continent is expected to face. He cautioned that reducing sanctions now would undermine efforts against Russia and stressed that enduring considerable hardship, particularly around energy supply, is necessary. Despite harsh rhetoric describing Putin as a “terrorist,” Powell also urged continued communication with the Russian president to avoid dangerous misunderstandings.
Powell expressed optimism about Ukraine’s prospects, highlighting that the war is essentially won because Putin will not capture the entire country. He maintained that a free and sovereign Ukraine within Europe will be able to chart its own course irrespective of territorial concessions. His observations came during the Yalta European Strategy forum, where his candid remarks stood out for their relative positivity compared with some of the more pessimistic assessments of Ukraine’s economic and security challenges amid persistent Russian attacks.
The economic toll on Ukraine was underscored by Oleksandr Kravchenko, the country’s Minister of Economy, who reported that Russian strikes this year have caused approximately $10 billion in damaged infrastructure and assets. With Ukrainian grain exports hampered by a blockade of sea ports, the nation’s GDP is projected to contract by 1.5%. Meanwhile, Europe faces its own energy dilemma. Although it has sharply curtailed imports of Russian gas, some nations remain reluctant to fully sever ties, partly due to low gas reserves and the broader global energy crisis. The European Union aims to end all Russian gas imports by January, but recent assessments indicate this transition is struggling under current pressures.
At the forum, Powell reiterated the need for sustained pressure on Putin, acknowledging the hardships involved. He stressed that Europe must not “take our foot off the gas,” metaphorically and literally, to avoid giving Russia an advantage during the winter months. Powell pointed to ongoing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and the country’s budget deficits but remained hopeful, citing signs such as internal changes in former U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine and the firm rejection of previously rumored compromises over Ukrainian territory.
Powell highlighted Ukrainian military successes in holding the front line, the heavy casualties suffered by Russian forces, and ongoing European solidarity as reasons for cautious optimism. He explained that the current strategy aims to exert enough pressure to compel Putin into serious negotiations. Though the timing of any peace deal remains unpredictable, Powell emphasized the importance for Europe to be prepared for negotiations and to keep diplomatic channels open to minimize the risk of miscalculations.
Drawing on his experience in conflict resolution, Powell advocated for dialogue with Moscow, noting the risks of ceasing communication with Putin’s government. He stressed that the war is fundamentally about Ukraine’s independence rather than territorial disputes alone. According to Powell, even if Russia gains or loses small areas of land, the essence of the conflict lies in Ukraine’s right to exist as a free and independent nation within Europe—a development that presents a significant internal challenge to Putin’s regime
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