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Andy Burnham, if he assumes the role of prime minister next month as anticipated, will face the immediate challenge of managing a £4.7 billion expenditure tied to the Defence Investment Plan (DIP). This substantial financial commitment looms large before he even begins to address the broader issue of increasing defence spending ahead of the upcoming general election. The recently released figures linked to the much-delayed plan reveal a significant shortfall that the current government expects its successor to resolve this autumn.
The process of finalizing the DIP has already sparked controversy, with difficult compromises attracting criticism from various quarters. Among those openly expressing dissatisfaction is Hamish Falconer, a sitting minister who has voiced concerns over the uncertain future of a road widening project for the A46 Newark bypass near his Lincoln constituency. The prospect of identifying an additional £5 billion from current budgets threatens to provoke further discontent among backbenchers.
Sir Keir Starmer publicly accepted responsibility for presenting the DIP, fulfilling his commitment to publish the plan before the NATO summit scheduled next week in Ankara, Turkey. This event marks his final major international appearance as prime minister. Delaying the announcement would have added to the difficulties facing a leader already preparing to exit office. By securing agreement on the plan with Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis, Sir Keir has also relieved Burnham from the immediate task of unveiling the DIP, potentially just weeks from now. While Burnham has yet to comment directly on the DIP, Defence Minister Luke Pollard confirmed ongoing discussions between Downing Street and Burnham’s team regarding the plan.
Throughout Sir Keir’s tenure, he has consistently highlighted the difficult choices he has confronted, shaped by a challenging combination of a sluggish economy, high taxation, rising national debt, increasing welfare expenditure, and the urgent demands of defence funding. An unsuccessful attempt to reform the welfare system, rejected by his own party members, compounded the difficulties. As the prime minister nears the end of his leadership, the former defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace described the DIP as feeling like a “leaving present” for Sir Keir but cautioned that “almost nothing has changed” when scrutinizing the fundamental facts. During the DIP announcement, Sir Keir’s measured tone reflected a leader deeply aware of the realities he faced. He acknowledged the inevitability of criticism over funding levels and admitted that tensions between government departments and the Treasury were unavoidable, emphasizing the need for the prime minister and chancellor to balance affordability and national priorities. While he did not explicitly say it, the underlying message seemed clear: the challenges awaiting Burnham are significant and complex
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