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Between 2005 and 2012, offenders judged to pose a serious risk to public safety were given Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences. These sentences included a minimum term that had to be served, but prisoners could only be released if the Parole Board was confident that they no longer posed a danger to the public. Consequently, many individuals have ended up being held indefinitely.
According to the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data available up to June of this year, there were 2,271 inmates serving IPP sentences. Out of this number, 856 have never been released because independent expert assessors, consulted by the Parole Board, deemed it unsafe to do so. Changing this indefinite sentencing system will require new legislation, meaning that relief from overcrowding may take several years to materialize. Timothy, speaking to the BBC, emphasized, “By definition, the people who are still in prison on those sentences are dangerous, because they’ve all been considered by independent expert assessors who have concluded that they are not safe to release and they would be a danger to the public.”
Timothy also acknowledged the ongoing prison overcrowding problem as a legacy issue, stating, “I’m fully open about the fact that one of the failures of the last Conservative government was that not enough prison places were built.” Echoing the need to balance public safety and prison capacity, Alex Davies-Jones, Minister for Victims, Violence Against Women and Girls & International Justice, told the BBC’s Today programme that the government’s top priority is a functioning criminal justice system to ensure public protection. She pointed out that the aim of the scheme is to guarantee “there is always a prison space available for someone who needs it,” clarifying that release measures under the scheme would include GPS tagging, highlighting that “release doesn’t mean freedom.”
As of 3 August, the prison population in England and Wales stood at 86,495, representing about 97% of usable capacity. To combat this, an early release scheme was introduced under the Sentencing Act 2026. Its purpose is to alleviate overcrowding by allowing certain inmates to be released earlier than originally planned. The scheme is set to begin on 1 October. However, offenders convicted of manslaughter, rape, serious child sexual offences, and grooming will be excluded from eligibility.
Addressing the BBC Breakfast programme, Burnham acknowledged that the decision to limit the scope of the early release scheme and retain the incarceration of PC Harper’s killers would result in “hundreds” more prisoners remaining behind bars, increasing the demand for space. The prime minister defended the approach as one based on “common sense” concerning IPP sentences, which he described as a long-standing concern. He remarked, “I was faced with a situation where people on those sentences who have more than served their time, not being released when others who’ve committed very serious crimes being released early.” Justice Secretary Alex Norris is expected to provide Parliament with further details on the early release scheme soon, including the numbers of inmates affected
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