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The missiles in question date back to the 1990s and come with a hefty price tag of approximately £1 million each. Their production depends on intricate international supply chains, and they were originally manufactured during peacetime at a modest scale, numbering in the hundreds rather than thousands. Even possessing the blueprints does not guarantee that Ukraine can quickly obtain all necessary components. The manufacturing process for these cruise missiles could extend to several months or even years.
In reality, attempting to replicate Western weapons production outside of wartime conditions is not an effective strategy for winning conflicts. This understanding has become more widely accepted among NATO members. Historically, Britain and its allies have focused on manufacturing limited quantities of advanced, expensive missiles, which would be quickly depleted in a prolonged war. This limitation was highlighted in 2021 by General Ben Hodges, the former head of the U.S. Army in Europe, who noted that a NATO war game revealed how quickly the British military exhausted critical weapons stockpiles. Reflecting this shift in thinking, the UK has ceased purchasing Storm Shadow missiles for itself.
Currently, the UK is pursuing Project Brakestop, a fast-moving initiative aimed at producing its own long-range cruise missiles devoid of foreign parts and at less than half the cost of the Storm Shadow. The UK aims to have this new missile ready by year’s end and intends to provide them to Ukraine. Ukraine, for its part, has demonstrated the value of producing inexpensive, mass-manufactured weapons essential for enduring conflicts. Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), explained to the BBC that sharing classified UK information on MBDA SCALP missiles with Ukraine, alongside French collaboration on local assembly lines, is significant. However, Barrie emphasized that the impact depends largely on how swiftly Ukraine can integrate these locally produced SCALP missiles into military service. Ukraine’s prior experience operating both Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles could facilitate this process, contingent also on the pace of establishing local assembly infrastructure.
When the conflict began, Ukrainian forces primarily relied on outdated Soviet-era weaponry. The gradual influx of Western arms supported adaptation, but now about 70% of Ukraine’s arms are produced domestically. A key factor has been rapid drone technology development, from frontline one-way First Person View (FPV) attack drones to larger, longer-range types capable of striking far into Russian territory, surpassing the range of Storm Shadow missiles. Kyiv expects to manufacture 10 million drones by the end of the year, employing cost-effective mass production methods using Chinese components. In contrast, NATO allies produce similar drones at roughly double the cost, largely because they avoid incorporating Chinese parts. Nevertheless, there remain critical weapon gaps Ukraine struggles to fill, including fast fighter jets and, most urgently, interceptors to defend against incoming Russian ballistic missiles.
The US-made Patriot interceptor missile stands out as the most effective missile defense system but is in short supply in Ukraine. Ukraine’s stocks have nearly vanished, allowing Russian ballistic missiles to frequently penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. The ongoing US military demands, including those related to other conflicts such as in Iran, further constrain Patriot availability. These interceptors are costly at about £3 million each and have a slow production rate. Though the US plans to increase annual Patriot production from around 600 to 2,000 missiles, this scale-up will take years. While former President Donald Trump had at one point indicated willingness to share Patriot technology with Ukraine, he subsequently reversed that position. Even with approval, it would presumably take Ukraine at least a year to begin manufacturing Patriots, hindered by reliance on scarce, sophisticated components in global demand.
In response, Ukraine has initiated Project Freya in collaboration with European partners, aiming to develop its own interceptor missiles. Yet the technological challenges in producing a missile capable of destroying another traveling at thousands of miles per hour are formidable. The process is costly and time-intensive. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s military and defense producers have shown remarkable adaptability. One company, Fire Point, is working on ballistic missiles it hopes to have operational by next year. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its ballistic missile output significantly, reportedly producing about 100 monthly. Given the expense and lengthy timelines involved, developing advanced weapons quickly remains a major hurdle for Ukraine, compounded by limited financial and temporal resources. Although sharing missile blueprints with Ukraine is undoubtedly a positive step, it is not a quick solution to Ukraine’s most urgent defense needs, nor will it substantially enhance Kyiv’s ability to strike Russia in new ways in the short term
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More
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