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As November approaches, the UK has yet to experience its first officially named storm this season. Typically, autumn sees Atlantic low-pressure systems bring gusty and unsettled weather, but this year those storm systems have largely been deflected by strong high-pressure areas. Instead of headline-grabbing gales, the focus has been on the growing drought conditions across much of the country. Nevertheless, meteorologists warn this may just be a period of relative calm, with forecasts indicating a rise in wet and windy weather as El Niño develops in the Pacific.
The start of autumn has been unusually quiet due to the positioning of the jet stream, a fast-moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere that shapes much of the UK’s weather. Normally in autumn, the jet stream moves across the UK regularly, ushering in low-pressure systems that bring rain and wind. However, this year it has frequently stuck to the north-west of Britain, steering storm systems away and allowing warmer air and high pressure to dominate. This pattern has resulted in less rainfall for many regions, particularly parts of England and Wales, while Scotland and Northern Ireland have seen comparatively more persistent showers.
The limited rainfall has had significant consequences, especially in southern England where reservoir levels have dropped to alarmingly low levels. This decline in water supplies prompted the Environment Agency to declare “severe drought” conditions in some areas. Meanwhile, the north-west of the UK has only experienced occasional strong winds with minimal disruption. For instance, Herefordshire had received merely a tenth of its usual mid-October rainfall, illustrating the degree of dryness affecting parts of the country.
Looking ahead, changes are anticipated as the jet stream is expected to shift position and strengthen over the coming week. This adjustment could allow deeper low-pressure systems to impact a broader part of the UK, bringing a return of wetter and windier weather after the relatively calm start to the season. The Met Office’s three-month outlook for October through December forecasts a higher likelihood of rain and wind than average, consistent with patterns observed during previous El Niño events. Historically, the peak period for named storms arrives in the winter months from December through February, although the season officially begins in September. At this point in the year, it is not uncommon for the UK to still be awaiting its first named storm, as roughly half of the years since 2015 have seen the initial storm arrive after November 1
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