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Kemi Badenoch’s leadership now distinctly defines the Conservative Party, as showcased at their annual conference in Birmingham. The event revealed a party that appears largely unified behind her, a notable shift from the discord seen just a year ago. At last year’s conference, Badenoch’s pivotal speech helped consolidate her position amid speculation about Robert Jenrick’s potential challenge, demonstrating a confident takeover that won over many Tory supporters.
Her 2023 address followed a familiar pattern, with the conference abuzz beforehand about a forthcoming inheritance tax policy. True to form, part of her speech was withheld prior to delivery, this time revealing plans to alter inheritance tax—a contentious issue that affects fewer than 5% of people but is widely disliked. Proponents of reform argue that inheritance tax unfairly impacts individuals aspiring to wealth and doubly taxes income already subjected to taxation. However, critics have been quick to respond. Reform UK denounced the plan as favoring “multi-millionaires,” contrasting it with their focus on income tax thresholds, which they say will aid a broader population.
Independent commentators like the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have weighed in, warning that the biggest beneficiaries of the inheritance tax changes would be affluent individuals, especially in London and the southeast. The IFS also cautioned that such reforms might incentivize wealthy people to buy or keep more expensive properties later in life. Although the proportion of estates subject to the tax is increasing rapidly, the IFS noted that future projections are uncertain due to factors like property market fluctuations. The Conservative Party estimates the inheritance tax adjustments will cost around £6 billion annually, claiming that this can be offset by £71 billion in government spending cuts, primarily targeting benefits and welfare. Significant savings are expected from reforms in sickness and disability benefits, reductions in benefits for non-EU nationals, housing benefit alterations, and reinstating the two-child limit for Universal Credit. Meanwhile, critics such as Work and Pensions Minister Torsten Bell warn that large-scale tax cuts risk severely damaging public finances.
Beyond the specific policies, Badenoch’s speech carried a broader message, reflecting a desire to present a revitalized Conservative Party free of former internal conflicts. She referenced Sir Lynton Crosby’s advice to “scrape the barnacles off the boat,” suggesting that unpopular policies have been eliminated, exemplified by the high-profile departures of Jenrick and Suella Braverman. Badenoch’s vehement rejection of Reform UK was notable, particularly her response to Braverman’s comments about English identity. Braverman, of Asian heritage, had stated, “I’m proud to be British… But in no way are we English,” asserting that “Englishness is an ethnicity.” Badenoch expressed frustration over such views, emphasizing her personal experience as a mother of mixed-race children and rejecting the notion that black English footballers aren’t truly English. She made clear that she neither respects nor intends to collaborate with Reform UK before or after the next general election, focusing her critique more on their character than on their prominent policy ideas.
While Badenoch touched briefly on immigration, this issue was largely left to her shadow home secretary, Chris Philp, who addressed topics such as withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights—a policy also advocated by Reform. Instead, Badenoch framed her speech around a larger contest for trust between Labour and the Conservatives, centering on economic growth as a key differentiator. Her tone, along with that of Labour’s Andy Burnham, contrasts sharply with the more restrained approaches of previous leaders. Both appear to relish their roles and openly advocate for their differing visions. Badenoch even described the political struggle as the “battle for the soul of this nation,” hinting at an intense ideological fight going forward.
Despite the apparent internal cohesion and optimism within the Conservative ranks, Badenoch conceded that the party still faces significant popularity challenges. Opinion polls continue to show them less popular than at the last general election, though slightly improved from their lowest point. The party remains wary but hopeful, noting Reform UK’s recent setbacks and Labour’s shift leftwards, which could alienate some voters. The Conservatives are focusing on carving out appeal in key areas such as childcare support, housing tax policies, and inheritance tax changes to attract recent Liberal Democrat supporters, particularly in southern England. Their strategy aims to exploit existing gaps in the political landscape, regain ground on Reform UK in the polls, and ultimately position themselves as the most credible alternative to a Labour or Labour-led government in upcoming elections. Only time will tell if this approach achieves the desired breakthrough
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