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A large low-pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to pull warm winds from the south-southeast over the UK early this week, bringing with it a mixture of warmth and rain for many areas. Tuesday is anticipated to be the warmest day of the period, after which temperatures will generally fall back closer to what is typical for September. The accompanying weather fronts may result in wetter and windier conditions, particularly impacting Scotland, Northern Ireland, and western regions of England and Wales. Conversely, central, southern, and eastern England—areas currently experiencing drought—are likely to see less rainfall during this time.
The recent arrival of the autumn equinox means that nights are now longer than days, leading to cooler overnight temperatures despite the sunshine during the day. On Monday morning, a notably chilly start is expected, along with the possibility of fog in some places, which could affect the morning commute. After the fog dissipates, many parts of the country will experience clearer skies with sunny spells and only scattered showers. Southeastern England may receive some beneficial rain in the afternoon and evening, although this is not certain. Temperatures will generally range from the mid to high teens Celsius, with southern areas potentially reaching up to 20°C.
Tuesday will see a strengthening southerly wind bringing warmer conditions, with temperatures forecast to reach the high teens in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and between 20 and 26 degrees Celsius across England and Wales. Rain will begin moving into Northern Ireland in the afternoon and gradually spread eastwards in the evening and overnight. This rain may become persistent and heavy at times, accompanied by strong winds and gales along exposed coasts and hills. Areas further east could remain drier and brighter until the rain arrives on Wednesday, possibly lingering overnight. Following this, the weather should clear with sunny intervals and scattered showers, though westerly winds will continue to be blustery on Wednesday. By Thursday, high pressure is expected to develop, bringing calmer and drier weather, while by Friday, the northwest may experience the majority of any remaining showers.
In the context of a record-breaking hot summer in the UK, September has continued to offer warm weather but with a pronounced difference across regions. While western and northern parts, including Scotland, have been affected by frequent Atlantic systems delivering rain and wind, much of central, southern, and eastern England has remained largely dry with significant sunshine. This disparity has resulted in highly variable rainfall totals. Drought-affected areas in England have seen minimal precipitation, whereas parts of northwestern Scotland have experienced much wetter conditions. Locations such as Kirkwall and Prestwick have already recorded nearly one and a half times the average September rainfall, with the Highlands’ Achnagart observing rain every day for the past 27 days. Meanwhile, some parts of Northern Ireland and Wales have received average amounts of rain, and northeast England has reported some of the lowest rainfall totals so far this month
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