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On the morning of 1 October, approximately 700 eligible prisoners in England and Wales will be released based on the government’s updated early release scheme, with an expected total of around 2,550 offenders set to leave custody by the end of the year. This revised plan, which has been formally approved and made public, maintains the initial timetable and framework established by Andy Burnham’s administration, apart from shifting the release start date by one month and excluding certain offenses from eligibility.
Originally, the scheme would have allowed prisoners serving sentences of up to 19 months to be freed after completing one-third of their sentence beginning on 2 September. However, Burnham acknowledged the concerns voiced by victims, stating in Parliament, “I came in and asked for changes to the early release scheme, and we excluded rape, grooming, and child sex offences.” As a result, the date for the earliest releases was moved to 1 October, with officials estimating around 700 prisoners to be freed that day. Following this, a second wave of roughly 650 prisoners serving between 19 months and two years and five months will be released starting 13 October.
Currently, prisons in England and Wales are operating at 97% capacity, with the Ministry of Justice reporting that only about 1,500 spaces remain vacant in the male prison estate—the lowest figure this year. The adjustment in the release schedule means prison and probation services have less than two weeks to prepare for the upcoming tranche of prisoners, compared to the nearly six weeks originally planned after the initial release. Overall, the full rollout of releases, originally estimated to involve approximately 4,500 prisoners, has been reduced due to certain offenses being disqualified from the scheme, resulting in 1,400 fewer offenders being released under the revised approach.
Prisoners serving longer sentences—some exceeding a decade—are scheduled to be discharged gradually beginning next year, but now at the halfway point of their sentences rather than the two-thirds point previously expected. This change affects offenders classified as higher risk, who would have otherwise served more extensive portions of their sentences behind bars. The ministerial directive outlining the scheme makes clear that 71 serious offenses are exempt from early release, including manslaughter, rape, and various sexual and grooming crimes. Additionally, those serving life sentences or on extended sentences are not eligible. To help ease overcrowding, the government also announced plans to convert unused spaces within existing prisons into additional cells, investing £110 million from current budgets. Justice Secretary Alex Norris emphasized that early release does not equate to freedom without constraints, assuring that victims will have input on restrictions imposed on released offenders. He also projected that the number of new prison places created from these conversions would fall between 200 and 900
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