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After a period of unsettled weather and recent rainfall breaking a dry spell of nearly two months, some forecasts are indicating a potential return to dry and sunny conditions in September across the UK. While temperatures are expected to dip slightly this week—possibly 2 to 4°C below the average for mid-August—there is increasing speculation about whether the country might experience another heatwave before the summer season fully concludes.
This summer has been marked by exceptional warmth, with the Met Office indicating that 2026 is on track to challenge the record for the hottest summer on record. Despite the cooler trend expected in the coming days, for the year not to surpass last year’s record, temperatures through the remainder of August would have to fall substantially below average. The trend of higher-than-normal temperatures and heatwaves was anticipated as early as June by forecasts from the Met Office and MeteoGroup, which considered various atmospheric patterns alongside the growing influence of human-induced climate change.
Meteorological summer concludes on 31 August, after which predictions turn toward autumn—a season known for its transitional weather that often complicates long-range forecasting. Nevertheless, certain conditions suggest that a warm spell could still emerge in September. One contributing factor is the exceptionally dry soil following July, which was the driest month recorded across England and Wales. This dryness makes the air heat up more quickly since less energy is consumed by evaporation. Additionally, sea surface temperatures around the UK remain notably elevated, about 3°C above average, which can transfer extra warmth onto the land.
Computer models also indicate a possible period of high pressure building south of the UK in early September, which usually brings clear skies and warm weather. This could potentially draw warmer air northwards from continental Europe. The Met Office’s long-range outlook for September through November suggests a “higher than normal” chance of warmer-than-average conditions and an elevated risk of heatwaves, especially during the early part of autumn. At the same time, the forecast points to drier-than-average conditions continuing, which does not bode well for easing the ongoing drought. According to the Environment Agency, significant rainfall over an extended period will be needed to replenish water supplies. While it remains uncertain if or when another heatwave might occur, the risk appears to be present as the UK moves into the autumn months
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