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Following a summer marked by record-breaking heatwaves and widespread drought, parts of the UK are now facing wet weather conditions. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly across north-west England, Northern Ireland, and southern Scotland. However, regions in southeast England—some of the areas most in need of substantial rainfall—may remain relatively dry in the coming days. Where the rain does fall heavily, there is a risk of hail, lightning, and flash flooding.
The week begins with wet conditions in many northern and central areas of the UK. Scotland and Northern Ireland are forecasted to experience showery weather throughout Tuesday, with northeast Scotland and the Northern Isles likely to see extended spells of rain. Southern England and Wales will see some cloud and light rain early on due to a cold front, but several places might stay dry. By Wednesday, showers will continue mainly in north-west England, Northern Ireland, and southern Scotland, accompanied by sunny spells. Some showers are expected to grow heavier and thundery, while southeast England largely avoids the wet weather. Thursday will see the low-pressure system move south, spreading more frequent and widespread showers and thunderstorms across the country. These storms may be slow-moving and intense, raising the chance of hail, lightning, and localized flooding, although some drought-affected areas might still miss out on significant rain.
The risk of flash flooding this summer is heightened due to the ongoing drought conditions gripping England and Wales. Authorities have reported that 71.3% of England is currently in drought, the result of the driest July since records began in 1836, with all of Wales also affected. During prolonged dry spells, the soil becomes hard and compacted, reducing its ability to absorb water quickly. Consequently, heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may run off the surface rather than soaking in, leading to sudden and localized flooding. Despite these heavy downpours, drought conditions do not immediately resolve, as rivers, groundwater, and reservoirs can remain depleted for months.
In addition to unsettled weather, a surge of cooler air from the Arctic is expected to influence UK temperatures. For the first time in weeks, temperatures will fall below average, with Scotland and Northern Ireland seeing highs between 13 and 18 degrees Celsius. England and Wales can expect daytime temperatures around 18 to 22 degrees Celsius by Thursday, which contrasts sharply with last week’s heat but aligns closer to seasonal averages. While forecasts indicate no further intense heatwaves for August, there are early signs that hot spells could return in September, particularly in southern regions. However, as with all long-range weather predictions, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty
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