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Just three weeks into his tenure as prime minister, Andy Burnham is moving to reverse a significant aspect of legislation introduced under his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer. The legislation in question, the Sentencing Act 2026, aimed to alleviate the problem of overcrowded prisons by permitting the early release of many prisoners, a change intended to be a long-term solution. Following a review initiated by Burnham, he declared that the Act would no longer apply to most rapists, child sex offenders, and grooming gang members. However, individuals convicted of manslaughter, including two men responsible for the death of PC Andrew Harper, remained eligible for early release, sparking strong objections from Harper’s family and former colleagues.
Burnham has expressed growing confidence that he will find a way to prevent the early release of “other serious offenders,” such as those convicted of killing PC Harper. Yet, the methods under consideration to achieve this face significant hurdles, with some options having been dismissed in the past. The challenge lies in addressing the pressures on the prison system while ensuring that certain offenders remain incarcerated. The current prison population in England and Wales stands at 86,536, nearly 97% of capacity as of 10 August. For years, politicians have extended sentence lengths without expanding prison space proportionally, leading to a crisis wherein courts may be unable to sentence violent offenders or detain suspects ahead of trial if prisons become completely full.
Burnham and his Justice Secretary, Alex Norris, have pointed to three main strategies for freeing up prison spaces: releasing more female inmates, deporting foreign prisoners, and addressing the population of prisoners serving Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences. Women constitute roughly 4% of the prison population, typically convicted of less violent crimes and often victims of domestic abuse or substance misuse. It is estimated that over 2,000 female prisoners serving non-violent sentences could be released. There is also discussion about closing one of the women’s prisons—there are 12 in total—and repurposing it to house male prisoners, which would increase capacity. Nevertheless, this approach raises concerns about relocating female prisoners further from family support, as around half are mothers, and about the complexities involved in converting less secure women’s facilities into male prisons.
Another possibility is the early deportation of foreign nationals, who make up about 12% of the prison population, amounting to over 10,000 individuals; however, only about 6,500 are eligible for deportation as others are still awaiting trial or sentencing. The Sentencing Act contains a provision, not yet implemented, to allow deportation immediately after sentencing. While this strategy could reduce prison numbers, deporting inmates convicted of violent or sexual offences before they serve significant portions of their sentences might be politically sensitive. Moreover, practical obstacles exist: in some instances, even after completing sentences, foreign prisoners remain in the UK due to difficulties in securing travel documents from their home countries. Thus, although deportation holds considerable theoretical potential, significant challenges must be addressed.
The final option under consideration is releasing prisoners serving IPP sentences, introduced between 2005 and 2012 for individuals convicted of serious sexual or violent offences. These prisoners were told they would be detained until it was no longer deemed dangerous to release them, but many remain incarcerated after lengthy stays, with 2,271 currently serving IPPs; 856 have never been released because the Parole Board deemed them unsafe. Although releasing all IPP prisoners might seem straightforward, there are substantial risks: some remain highly dangerous, possibly even more so than PC Harper’s killers. Burnham’s goal is to free enough prison space to exclude another relevant category—such as all those convicted of manslaughter and serving determinate sentences—from early release. This might involve focusing only on those with sentences exceeding 10 years or other criteria. However, tailoring such exclusions to suit all concerns is complicated and politically sensitive.
Achieving a balance between relieving overcrowding and ensuring serious offenders remain in custody is a complex, politically charged dilemma. Burnham’s proposed approaches are fraught with practical and ethical difficulties, revealing the broader challenges of managing a strained prison system. While sometimes fresh leadership can uncover innovative solutions, this situation underscores that some problems resist quick or easy resolution. The prime minister’s efforts illustrate the intricate interplay between criminal justice policy and public sentiment, particularly in high-profile cases such as that of PC Andrew Harper
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