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In recent months, the UK has experienced an unusual pattern of extreme heat, with two separate heatwaves breaking longstanding temperature records—a phenomenon not seen since 1911. Although we are still early in the summer season, with the hottest days usually occurring in late July and August, there are already signs pointing to the likelihood of additional heatwaves ahead. While the latest heatwave in June is expected to ease over the weekend, bringing more typical weather conditions next week, forecasters are anticipating further bursts of high temperatures throughout the summer.
The weather has swung dramatically since May, which began under a large expanse of high pressure commonly called a “heat dome.” This brought dry, sunny, and exceptionally warm weather to the UK, culminating in a new May temperature record of 35.1°C at Kew Gardens in London. However, June started off wetter and cooler than usual, with much of the month’s rainfall concentrated in its first half due to Atlantic low-pressure systems driving a series of fronts across the country. Then, in a swift shift, an intense heatwave returned, smashing the UK’s all-time high temperature record for June.
Forecasts published in early June indicated a higher-than-normal chance of hotter weather in the coming months, with MeteoGroup highlighting the potential for several significant spikes in temperature this summer. The accuracy of these seasonal predictions has been confirmed by recent events. The Met Office issued a rare red extreme heat warning affecting south-east Wales and southern England, which led to school closures and disruptions in transport as communities coped with the severe conditions. Projected trends for the summer, which lasts until the end of August, suggest an increased likelihood of further heatwaves and heat-related issues, with temperatures expected to be above average for July and August. This shift reflects a broader warming trend linked to climate change, making hot summers twice as probable compared to the 1991-2020 period.
Scientists attribute the rising frequency and severity of heatwaves to human-induced climate change, which raises baseline temperatures and intensifies heat events. The UK experienced its first-ever temperature above 40°C in July 2022, when Coningsby, Lincolnshire, registered 40.3°C. If global warming continues unabated, temperatures reaching the mid-forties by 2050 are considered a plausible scenario by Met Office models. Research from World Weather Attribution confirmed that the extreme heat seen across Western Europe this June would have been “impossible just a few decades ago.” Experts like Dr. Theodore Keeping from Imperial College London affirm the clear connection between climate change and worsening heatwaves, emphasizing that ongoing fossil fuel emissions are directly responsible for the hardships people are facing. Similarly, Dr. Akshay Deoras, a senior climate scientist at the University of Reading, warns that without a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, global warming will continue to accelerate
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