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For an extended period, the decline of Sir Keir Starmer’s administration has been carefully documented, with signs of instability becoming more apparent over months, weeks, and sometimes even days. Yet, despite this gradual unraveling, the sight of the prime minister once again standing in Downing Street, openly acknowledging the imminent end of his tenure, caused a moment of genuine surprise on Monday morning.
Unlike his predecessors, Sir Keir was not forced out by scandal, as was the case with Boris Johnson, nor by economic disaster, similar to Liz Truss’s downfall. Nevertheless, there are notable similarities among all three leaders in that they lost the ability to govern effectively—an outcome that swiftly leads to a prime minister’s exit. The root cause in every instance was the erosion of confidence from their own Members of Parliament. It is remarkable that all three faced this fate within just four years of one another.
Numerous factors contributed to Labour MPs’ growing dissatisfaction with Sir Keir. Early missteps, such as the announcement and subsequent reversal of plans to cancel the winter fuel payment for many pensioners shortly after Labour’s election victory, set the tone. Additional controversies, including disputes over perks referred to by some as “passes for glasses,” further fueled unrest. Dysfunction became openly visible within weeks of Labour’s government beginning when a publicized internal briefing battle emerged over the removal of Sir Keir’s first chief of staff, Sue Gray. Crucially, just over a year ago, the prime minister’s humiliating retreat on proposed welfare reforms marked a turning point, signaling a sharp decline in his authority as MPs realised they could challenge government policy with relative ease.
Further turmoil came with the prolonged and embarrassing saga of Lord Peter Mandelson’s appointment and subsequent dismissal as ambassador in Washington, which persisted through much of Sir Keir’s remaining time in office. Alongside these issues, key figures close to the prime minister resigned, including Morgan McSweeney, who had worked with Starmer throughout his political leadership, and Tim Allan, the director of communications at No 10. Beneath these public struggles, a simmering dissatisfaction among Labour MPs—initially expressed privately—eventually surfaced openly, reflecting a deepening lack of confidence that was invisible from outside Westminster walls.
As journalists, the role has been to report these developments with accuracy and sensitivity, often relying on off-the-record sources to reveal the true state of affairs away from cameras and microphones. This means much of what is known depends on information shared anonymously, capturing candid private sentiments that official statements or on-the-record comments might not convey. For example, in November, well-placed informants disclosed that Sir Keir intended to resist any attempts to remove him from leadership, indicating the precariousness of his position and the fears among his supporters of an imminent challenge.
By the end of 2025, many MPs viewed 2026 as a critical year to determine Sir Keir’s future, with the May elections set to be a defining moment. Events unfolded more rapidly than expected, especially after the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, publicly called for the prime minister’s resignation. The elections further entrenched many MPs’ concerns that their leader’s unpopularity was harming the party’s standing. This solidified the belief that Sir Keir’s departure was nearly unavoidable, leaving him unable to block Andy Burnham’s forthcoming bid to re-enter Parliament through a by-election in Makerfield and position himself as the next Labour leader.
In the closing days of the administration, the government appeared to disintegrate before public view. A public dispute between the home secretary and the prime minister over the future of immigration minister Mike Tapp highlighted the breakdown of discipline and unity. Shabana Mahmood was angered by what she saw as insubordination from Tapp, who, despite his loyalty to Sir Keir until the end, was independently outlining policy positions as Burnham prepared his future cabinet. Although Mahmood demanded Tapp’s dismissal and had urged the prime minister to resign, Sir Keir refused to sack the junior minister. This episode underscored the erosion of collective coherence within the government during its final weeks.
Meanwhile, preparations for the next administration were underway both in Westminster and Manchester. Andy Burnham, poised to become the new prime minister by mid-next month, was expected to deliver a formal speech outlining his priorities and a vision for government. As Sir Keir’s premiership draws to a close, the political landscape shifts significantly, with a new leadership poised to take the reins and confront the challenges ahead
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