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Andy Burnham is poised to mount a challenge against Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party following his victory in the Makerfield by-election. Sir Keir has indicated that he intends to contest any leadership challenge and, if successful, would remain as prime minister. Conversely, should he lose, the new leader would assume the prime ministership without the requirement of a general election.
The pressure on Sir Keir’s leadership has intensified amid Labour’s poor performance in the recent local elections held in May, where the party lost nearly 1,500 councillors across England. Additionally, Labour lost control in Wales and produced its worst-ever result in the Scottish Parliament elections. Over 90 Labour MPs have called for Sir Keir’s immediate resignation or have asked for a clear timeline for his departure. Nonetheless, over 150 MPs have expressed either support for Starmer or believe that this is not an appropriate time for a leadership contest. Questions about the leadership have also arisen following Sir Keir’s appointment of Lord Mandelson as the UK ambassador to the US—a decision that faced scrutiny after revelations concerning Mandelson’s connections with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, which had previously led to Mandelson’s dismissal.
In terms of how a leadership challenge could unfold, dissatisfaction among MPs could trigger a leadership election if 20% of Labour’s parliamentary members back a challenger. With 403 Labour MPs in the House of Commons, this equates to the support of at least 81 MPs to nominate a candidate. Other contenders can enter the race if they also secure the backing of 81 MPs. Sir Keir, as the incumbent leader, would appear automatically on the ballot without needing nominations, and would remain prime minister throughout the contest. Historically, no sitting Labour prime minister has faced a formal leadership challenge from within the party’s MPs.
The final decision on a new leader is determined by party members and affiliated trade union supporters, who rank candidates in order of preference via postal ballots. If one candidate secures more than half of the first-preference votes, they are declared the winner outright. If not, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their supporters’ subsequent preferences are redistributed. This elimination and redistribution process continues until a candidate surpasses 50% of the vote. The schedule for this ballot would be set by Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), with past leadership contests allowing approximately six weeks for nominations and the vote. Potential challengers to Sir Keir include former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, newly re-elected Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner. Each has publicly indicated varying degrees of willingness to stand in a leadership election.
If Sir Keir were to resign or set a timetable for his departure, he could remain in office during a transitional period before handing over the party leadership and prime ministership to a successor. Should he step down immediately, a caretaker prime minister would be appointed, typically through a cabinet decision in consultation with the NEC, though the current Deputy Prime Minister would not necessarily assume that caretaker role. In such a situation, any leadership hopeful would need nominations backed by 20% of Labour MPs and additional support from constituency Labour parties or affiliated organizations. As for triggering a general election, the leader of the opposition—currently held by the Conservative Party—could propose a motion of no confidence in the government. However, with Labour holding a substantial majority of Westminster seats, it is highly unlikely that enough Labour MPs would vote in favor of such a motion, meaning a leadership change would not automatically lead to a national vote
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