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The latest weather forecasts indicate that the UK may experience a summer warmer than usual, with an increased likelihood of heatwaves. On 1 June, marking the start of meteorological summer, the Met Office published its three-month outlook predicting higher-than-normal chances of hot weather throughout June, July, and August. The extended forecast highlights the potential for multiple heatwaves and related impacts during this period.
This projection comes on the heels of an intense late spring heatwave which broke temperature records across the country. One notable record was set in Kew Gardens, London, where temperatures soared to 35.1°C in May, surpassing the previous longstanding record of 32.8°C from 1944. In addition, the UK experienced its first yellow and amber heat health alerts of the year during this time. Looking ahead, both the Met Office and MeteoGroup, providers of BBC Weather data, warn of further heat spikes, with MeteoGroup anticipating several significant bursts of high temperatures across the UK and Europe.
While there is a clearer consensus on temperature trends, forecasts about summer rainfall remain less certain due to differing predictions. MeteoGroup suggests the season will be drier than average, particularly in June and July across England and Wales, with Scotland expecting rainfall near average levels. In contrast, the Met Office posits that summer could be either average in terms of precipitation or even wetter than usual, noting the chance of a wetter season is slightly elevated.
Recent years have seen substantial variation in rainfall patterns across the UK, making precise forecasts challenging. For instance, in 2025, the nation’s average summer rainfall was 84% of what is typical; however, northern and western regions received considerably more rain than usual, while central, eastern, and southern areas experienced notably drier conditions, with some locations receiving less than half of their expected precipitation. That year also saw drought declarations across much of England following a parched spring, leading to hosepipe bans over the summer due to increased demand for water
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