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For months, No 10 has been fixated on two key questions: whether Wes Streeting has enough support, and if Andy Burnham can secure a parliamentary seat. According to an ally of the prime minister, these questions have dominated discussions. Although Streeting’s team insists they have the numbers, supporters of the current leader, Keir Starmer, strongly disagree. However, these debates became secondary after Streeting resigned from the government to gear up for a leadership bid. Shortly thereafter, it emerged that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, had an MP willing to vacate their seat so he could pursue a parliamentary position, marking the beginning of his anticipated challenge for the leadership. While nothing is official yet, the race to replace the prime minister is effectively underway.
The public reaction to Labour’s leadership turmoil is mixed. One cabinet minister described the electorate as “pretty horrified” by the party plunging into another leadership change, while another minister acknowledged that last week’s election results “just had to be respected.” If challengers get their way, a leadership contest is likely to take place over the summer, with a new leader and prime minister named before the party conference in late September. This suggests that even if Starmer is on his way out, he will remain in office for some time. However, the timing of any such contest remains far from certain.
Within Labour’s senior ranks, there is disagreement about whether a contest will occur. Some believe that if Burnham wins the upcoming by-election, he and Streeting should strike an “accommodation” to avoid a potentially damaging leadership battle. One senior figure predicted no one would oppose Burnham, saying he has so much momentum that “he’ll be carried south for a coronation,” potentially ushering in a swift transition to Downing Street. Yet, not everyone shares this optimism—many in government remain angry
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