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Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, has expressed strong confidence that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will secure a majority in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election scheduled for next month. Speaking to the BBC, Swinney predicted his party would reach the 65-seat threshold necessary to form an outright majority, a scenario he says would mandate the possibility of holding a second referendum on Scottish independence.
Recent polling data indicates that the SNP is positioned to maintain its status as the dominant party at Holyrood, continuing a near 20-year period in power. Swinney’s assertion, made during an interview on the programme *Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg*, represents his most definitive claim yet about the party’s prospects. Achieving a majority under Scotland’s mixed electoral system—which combines first-past-the-post and proportional representation elements and typically makes outright majorities challenging—would echo the SNP’s 2011 success that paved the way for the 2014 independence referendum. In 2021, the SNP came close, missing a majority by just one seat.
Opposition parties have responded critically to Swinney’s forecast. Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie dismissed the claim as arrogant, emphasizing that the election will determine who governs Scotland rather than simply whether the SNP attains a majority. Baillie said, “Only Scottish Labour can get rid of this complacent and out of touch SNP government and fix the mess they have made, and only Anas Sarwar can replace John Swinney as first minister.” Similarly, Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Alex Cole-Hamilton rejected the prediction and projected gains for his party, arguing voters remain skeptical of SNP promises and highlighting the Lib Dems’ focus on healthcare and the cost of living in their manifesto.
Other political voices expressed skepticism as well. Gillian Mackay, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, noted that the SNP leader’s call for votes is unsurprising but stressed the importance of Green MSPs holding the government accountable to effect change. A spokesperson for Reform UK criticized the SNP’s long tenure, attributing it to struggling public services and unmet promises. Meanwhile, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay warned that a majority SNP victory would plunge Scotland into renewed constitutional uncertainty and positioned his party as the defender of the Union against the SNP’s push for independence. Meanwhile, UK government ministers such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting have firmly ruled out authorising another referendum in the near future, underscoring the constitutional challenges any new vote would face
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