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After 43 consecutive days of rising costs, petrol and diesel prices have now stopped increasing, according to the latest data from the motoring organization RAC. This halt follows a temporary ceasefire in the Gulf, which has eased crude oil prices from their recent highs and, in turn, influenced wholesale fuel costs.
Despite this pause, fuel prices remain significantly elevated compared to levels before the conflict began. Petrol currently averages just above 158p per litre, a noticeable rise from 133p in late February, while diesel has increased from 142p to 192p per litre, RAC figures show. The motoring group has expressed optimism that prices may start to decline within the coming weeks.
The escalation of the US-Israeli war with Iran caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route responsible for transporting about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. This disruption caused a sharp rise in global fuel prices. Because crude oil is a primary component in petrol and diesel, its wholesale price rise directly leads to higher costs at the pump. The recent surge in prices translates to an extra £14 cost to fill a family car’s petrol tank and an additional £27 for diesel.
While these increases are substantial, they have not yet matched the peak prices from summer 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when petrol reached 191.5p and diesel nearly 199p per litre. Diesel prices have climbed more steeply than petrol because refining diesel is more complex. The UK imports around half of its diesel needs, and global demand remains high. “Wholesale fuel costs are now significantly lower than they were at the start of the month, so forecourt prices should begin to come down,” said Simon Williams, RAC’s head of policy. He added, “As things stand, we’d expect petrol and diesel to drop by several pence a litre in the next week or so,” and expressed hope that drivers would soon experience some relief at the pumps.
The AA has pointed out that any reduction in fuel prices may vary depending on location, referring to the phenomenon as a “pump-price postcode lottery.” Edmund King, AA president, explained: “If you live in a town with competitive retailers, you may see some movement. If you live somewhere where they all watch each other to see who budges first, you won’t.” Historically, the fuel sector has faced criticism for quickly raising prices when oil costs climb but lowering them slowly during price falls—a practice known as “rocket and feather” pricing. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) found some evidence of this behavior in late 2022 and has since increased its monitoring of forecourt prices, intensifying its scrutiny last month in response to soaring energy costs
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