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At the time of the last Scottish Parliament election in 2021, the political landscape was markedly different: Queen Elizabeth was still reigning, Boris Johnson held the office at Number Ten, and pandemic restrictions such as maintaining two-metre social distancing were still in effect. Despite the many changes since then, the Scottish National Party (SNP) continues to be the dominant force heading into the upcoming Holyrood election on May 7.
Following a significant defeat in the 2019 UK general election, where Labour won decisively over the SNP, the political tides appear to be shifting. However, this revival is not primarily due to a surge in support for SNP leader John Swinney. Instead, opinion polls indicate that the SNP’s hold on the lead is largely a consequence of declining popularity for Sir Keir Starmer and the UK Labour government. Furthermore, the emergence of Reform UK in Scotland seems to be fracturing the pro-Union vote, which may allow the SNP to secure constituency seats even without reaching vote shares previously required.
Opposition parties such as the Scottish Conservatives, under Russell Findlay, and Labour, led by Anas Sarwar, are keen to prevent the SNP from winning a fifth consecutive term. They have criticized the SNP government on various fronts including housing shortages, overcrowded prisons, elevated drug-related deaths, delayed infrastructure projects, and NHS case backlogs. In response, John Swinney accused these parties of fostering a “doom loop of despair” and pointed to accomplishments like reducing the longest NHS waiting times, expanding free childcare, and scrapping peak rail fares as evidence of the government’s effective delivery.
As the election date nears, Swinney has renewed his party’s push for Scottish independence, aiming to reinvigorate core supporters and reclaim voters who once backed independence but have since drifted away. He hopes to secure a majority of Holyrood seats, which he believes is crucial to persuading the UK government to allow another referendum. However, this is a challenging task within an electoral system that is designed to prevent one party from dominating. Opposing this independence focus, the Conservatives aim to unite unionist voters by criticizing Swinney’s “obsession” with the issue. Meanwhile, polls suggest that only a minority of voters prioritize the constitutional question, with most Scots more concerned about the cost of living, the economy, the NHS, and migration
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