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A recent by-election in Greater Manchester, while geographically distant from Scotland, has drawn significant attention from political parties north of the border as they prepare for the upcoming Holyrood election. The contest became an immediate talking point for Labour MSPs attending their conference in Paisley, as well as for Scottish Greens celebrating the success of their counterparts in England. The dynamics of tactical voting and the presence of Reform UK on the ballot could also influence campaign approaches in the crucial May elections.
For Labour, the by-election result was another blow, with little surprise among party members given the difficulties the party has faced recently. Anas Sarwar had previously voiced his concerns over Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, stating the UK party was heading in the wrong direction. The Scottish Labour party is familiar with losing votes at both ends of the political spectrum—losing right-leaning voters to Reform UK and left-leaning progressives to the Greens—a pattern reminiscent of the post-2014 independence referendum shift that saw voters migrate towards the SNP and Conservatives.
Meanwhile, Scottish Greens are looking to leverage the momentum of their English equivalent’s success, helped by the camaraderie between their co-leaders, such as Ross Greer and Zack Polanski. However, the upcoming May election will present a different challenge, as the Greens must appeal broadly across the nation rather than focusing on targeted constituencies like Gorton and Denton. The proportional representation system in Holyrood means that the party’s success will largely depend on gaining support through the regional list vote, where message breadth is crucial.
Another important factor is the role of Reform UK, which plans to contest every constituency in Scotland and aims to benefit particularly from regional list votes. The party’s presence could influence tight races and has already become a focal point of attention and opposition from other political groups. Labour’s hope that tactical voting would unite anti-Reform supporters around them in Greater Manchester was frustrated when the vote instead consolidated around the Greens. Scottish parties are now positioning themselves as the primary alternative to Reform UK, seeking to attract tactical votes in May’s elections. This new element adds complexity to an already intricate political landscape where traditional two-party contests have given way to multi-party competition, making the framing of campaigns and voter strategy all the more critical in the weeks ahead
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