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The UK has experienced its wettest January on record, spanning areas from Cornwall up to County Down, a trend that has continued with heavy rainfall into February. This persistent flooding is largely attributed to a blocked weather system caused by a high pressure zone sitting over Scandinavia, effectively trapping wet conditions over the country. Experts warn that such wet winters are no longer rare anomalies but are likely to become more frequent due to climate change. The Met Office predicts that with ongoing global warming, events previously expected once every 80 years could soon occur every 20 years instead.
As of Tuesday, flood warnings were active for over 100 locations across the UK, with more than 300 homes already inundated according to the Environment Agency. The recent pattern of prolonged and intense rainfall matches a trend observed over the past decade, where six of the ten wettest winters since records began nearly 250 years ago have happened within this century. While natural variability influences UK rainfall, the increasing intensity and frequency of wetter winters align with climate predictions made by meteorologists in the UK. This shift stems from human activities such as burning fossil fuels, which generate greenhouse gases like CO2, warming the planet. For every 1C rise in temperature, the atmosphere’s moisture-holding capacity increases by about 7%, resulting in heavier rainfall events. Concurrently, rising sea levels—now about 20cm higher since 1901—exacerbate flooding risks through storm surges and tidal impacts on coastal regions.
Looking ahead, heavy rainfall days—currently averaging seven per year, where rainfall exceeds 80mm—are likely to increase in frequency. According to the Met Office, a global temperature rise surpassing 2C above pre-industrial levels would boost these to nine days annually. The United Nations forecasts that even with current emissions reduction efforts, global temperatures are expected to climb by at least 2.5C by the century’s end. Professor Lizzie Kendon from the Met Office highlights that not only are individual rainfall events intensifying, but the clustering of these events leads to prolonged soil saturation, heightening flood risks as seen in the current UK flooding.
The consequences of such wetter winters are extensive, affecting homes, transport systems, and food production. The Environment Agency estimates that by 2050, one in four UK properties could be at risk of flooding, with areas like the East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber, and southeast England particularly vulnerable. This figure could worsen with new housing developments on floodplains; the government aims to construct 1.5 million homes during this Parliament, with some regions building more than 10% of new homes in flood-prone zones. Transport infrastructure is similarly at risk, with about a third of railways vulnerable to flooding, resulting in cancellations and infrastructure damage. Farmers also face severe challenges: the National Farmers Union warned MPs of the sector’s exposure to both droughts and floods, which undermine food production. For instance, a Somerset beef and arable farmer, James Winslade, reported that over 90% of his farm
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