Chris Mason: What Starmer's China reset tells us about his foreign policy

Chris Mason: What Starmer's China reset tells us about his foreign policy

The core idea driving the prime minister’s recent trip to China revolves around what some observers refer to as China’s “looking up economy.” This phrase emphasizes the nature of China as a tightly managed state under the pervasive influence of the Chinese Communist Party, where directives from the highest levels shape the possibility of meaningful changes. When the leadership signals a strategic pivot, it can lead to substantial shifts in the country’s stance and policies.

Downing Street places great hopes on Sir Keir Starmer’s three-day visit, which featured high-level meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li in Beijing, followed by a journey to Shanghai. The visit involved numerous engagements, including diplomatic and business interactions, and early feedback from the prime minister’s side appears optimistic. For instance, Chinese state media devoted a significant portion of their main evening news broadcast—18 minutes out of 30—to covering Sir Keir’s discussions on the day he met the president, highlighting the visit’s prominence in Chinese official reporting.

Those accompanying the prime minister, representing sporting, cultural, and business sectors, express cautious optimism that this visit could mark a new phase of opportunities and collaboration. One participant remarked, “As long as this isn’t a one-off,” reflecting the hope that this moment marks the start of sustained engagement rather than a singular event. Downing Street reassured that this was not a “one and done” occasion. Meanwhile, China welcomes the continued attention it receives as Western leaders frequently make visits, underscoring its status on the international stage.

Sir Keir himself has openly stated in an interview that “it would be foolhardy to simply say we would ignore” China, signaling his pragmatic approach toward managing the complex relationship. He also criticized the eight-year gap since the last prime ministerial visit by Theresa May in 2018, describing those years as wasted. The prime minister’s vision contrasts with some members of his own party; for example, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly stated that she would not have made the trip if she were prime minister.

The visit has certainly been full of diplomatic pleasantries, but it also saw the announcement of plans to abolish visa requirements for British visitors to China staying under 30 days. However, this policy change remains under active consideration by the Chinese authorities, with no fixed implementation date yet. Sir Keir expressed confidence that progress is being made even if the start date isn’t settled. Officials involved in the finer points of negotiations are optimistic about gradually improving ties and the tangible benefits that might follow from a warmer bilateral relationship.

Despite signs of goodwill, skepticism persists among critics who warn of China’s untrustworthy nature, citing issues like cyber attacks and espionage concerns such as the recent MI5 alert about Chinese spying activities within the UK parliament. The atmosphere of suspicion is palpable, with everyone involved in the trip taking heightened digital security measures, including the use of temporary phone numbers and refraining from using personal devices. This security-conscious backdrop highlights the complexities of warming relations in a context marked by caution.

Following nearly 19 months in office, the prime minister has begun to articulate a more defined foreign policy vision, marked by frequent visits abroad and a commitment to engaging with a turbulent global environment. He summarized his outlook by saying, “We have to engage with this volatile world,” emphasizing how international developments increasingly impact domestic life. Frustrated by the criticism that labels him as “never here Keir” due to his extensive travel schedule, he stressed the importance of global engagement in addressing issues like the cost of living, even referencing supermarket prices during discussions with President Xi.

Sir Keir describes a UK that has “reset” its relationship with the European Union post-Brexit while securing new trade agreements, notably with India, and now expanding its focus to China. Nevertheless, the foreign policy path he is forging involves balancing acts. For instance, rejoining the EU customs union would jeopardize trade deals with countries outside the bloc. Similarly, drawing too close to China risks provoking tensions with the United States, as the prime minister’s team is aware.

Ultimately, Sir Keir identifies as a pragmatist, determined to apply “common sense” in reopening the UK to the world. His approach is incremental and multidirectional, aiming to position Britain outwardly in various global arenas rather than committing decisively in one direction. This careful balancing act underscores the intricate trade-offs involved in navigating 21st-century geopolitics

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