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Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham faces a deadline of 17:00 GMT on Saturday to decide whether he will run in the impending by-election for the Gorton and Denton parliamentary seat. Securing this position would provide Burnham with the parliamentary standing necessary to mount a challenge against Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. However, Burnham’s potential candidacy is contingent upon approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), given his status as a directly elected mayor. The BBC has learned that some members aligned with Sir Keir on the NEC intend to oppose Burnham’s bid, a stance that could provoke dissatisfaction among Labour MPs who back the mayor.
Burnham, previously a Labour minister, has yet to confirm his intentions regarding contesting the by-election. In response to questions about the vacancy within Greater Manchester, he emphasized his current commitment to his mayoral duties and urged against hasty assumptions. Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, who holds a position on the NEC, signaled her support for Burnham by stating her desire to select “the very best candidate… who can most help Labour win in that by-election.” She praised Burnham as “an incredibly popular politician” but underscored that the decision to stand is ultimately his. Powell also called for party unity behind Starmer, expressing a wish to avoid “in-fighting and talking about ourselves” during the by-election period.
Speculation surrounds a possible leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer following the upcoming May elections for the Welsh Parliament, Scottish Parliament, and many English local councils, which are anticipated to be challenging for Labour. Nearly 30 councils have delayed elections this year due to a substantial reorganization of local government—a move criticized by opposition MPs as potentially disenfranchising millions of voters. For Burnham to enter a leadership contest, he must first be elected as an MP. The BBC understands that former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, despite stepping down from government last year, supports Burnham’s possible candidacy and is expected to advocate this at a regional Labour conference.
There are notable obstacles facing Burnham’s application, with several Labour insiders expecting the NEC to reject it due to the financial implications of triggering a new mayoral election in Greater Manchester, which previously cost around £4.7 million. Additionally, the NEC might mandate an all-women shortlist for Labour candidates in the by-election to address the current gender imbalance among Labour MPs. The decision will be made not by the full NEC but by its 10 officers, including Sir Keir Starmer, Lucy Powell, party chair Ellie Reeves, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and union representatives from GMB and USDAW. Burnham will learn the committee’s verdict by Sunday, the same day all Labour candidate applications are due. Gorton and Denton remains a safe Labour seat, with the party securing an 18,000-vote majority in the last election.
Within Labour, opinions are split over Burnham’s potential return to Parliament. Labour MP and former shadow chancellor John McDonnell expressed on X that blocking Burnham would “cause immense damage both to Keir and therefore the party.” Meanwhile, Cat Smith, MP for Lancaster and Wyre, criticized any move restricting strong candidates from being considered by local party members. Contrastingly, Graham Stringer, MP for Blackley and Middleton South, voiced concerns rooted in local politics. He cautioned against risking the mayoralty to opposition party Reform UK and warned that by-elections are inherently difficult for government candidates, advising Burnham against standing
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