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Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is reportedly opposed to any attempts to prevent Andy Burnham from standing in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, according to information obtained by the BBC. It is anticipated that Rayner will make her support for Burnham publicly known at the Labour north west regional conference scheduled for Saturday. Should Burnham decide to stand and secure victory in the by-election, it would open the door for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership of the party.
Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, faces a tight deadline, with the need to inform Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) of his intention to stand by 5 pm on Saturday. The NEC will then decide by Sunday whether to grant him permission, as Labour’s party rules require elected mayors to be approved by the NEC before seeking parliamentary nominations. The by-election itself could take place as soon as next month following the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down on medical advice. While Burnham has not officially confirmed his candidacy, he has emphasized his current focus on his mayoral responsibilities and urged people not to jump to conclusions. Requests for interviews from the mayor have remained unanswered, underscoring the pressure surrounding his impending decision.
Labour insiders suggest that supporters of Sir Keir Starmer on the NEC may try to block Burnham’s nomination. One key concern is that Burnham’s potential campaign for the parliamentary seat would trigger a by-election to replace him as mayor of Greater Manchester, an outcome seen as costly and politically risky for the party. Additionally, the NEC might require an all-women shortlist for the by-election candidates, aligned with the party’s ongoing efforts to increase female representation given the current male majority among Labour MPs. Despite these challenges, Rayner’s backing could complicate efforts by the NEC to exclude Burnham, as she remains influential within the party’s grassroots and among backbenchers, despite having resigned from her government roles last year amid a breach of the ministerial code.
Views within the Labour parliamentary group are mixed regarding Burnham’s return to Westminster. Jo White, MP and leader of the Red Wall group, shared a post supporting Burnham, warning that “a London stitch up will be a disaster for Labour.” Conversely, Graham Stringer, MP for Blackley and Middleton South, expressed reservations, describing the by-election as “very high-risk” for any candidate representing a sitting government and advising Burnham against pursuing the seat. Labour currently holds the Gorton and Denton constituency with a significant majority of 13,000 votes; however, the party’s declining popularity since the last general election means victory is not guaranteed. Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s waning approval ratings and speculation about potential leadership challenges following the local elections in May, Burnham, Rayner, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting have all been discussed as possible rivals to the current party leadership. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, in an interview with the BBC, cautioned against destabilizing the party, stating there is “much merit” in Burnham but warning that a leadership contest would inevitably force an election, something he suggests the party cannot afford at this time
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