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Greater Manchester’s Mayor Andy Burnham faces increasing pressure to decide whether he will seek to return to Parliament, following the announcement that Labour MP Andrew Gwynne is stepping down due to significant health issues. Gwynne has cited “significant ill health” and medical advice from his GP to resign, which sets the stage for a by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency. This development opens the door for Burnham to potentially contest the seat and even position himself for a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, should he regain a parliamentary seat.
Currently, Burnham is not required to make an immediate decision regarding his candidacy, as Gwynne has not formally resigned yet. Nevertheless, speculation is mounting over whether Burnham intends to pursue the seat. Should he choose to enter the selection process, it is anticipated that other Labour figures and former MPs will also vie for the nomination. Complicating matters, as a sitting mayor, Burnham would need approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), according to party regulations. Sources within the NEC told the BBC that the party wants to hold the by-election promptly, ideally before the upcoming local elections in May, and expects Gwynne to resign officially soon, with a candidate likely to be selected by the end of next week.
Some Labour members within the NEC are reportedly against the idea of Burnham standing, concerned that his candidacy would trigger a mayoral election in Greater Manchester. They view this as both a potential financial strain on the party and a political risk. There is also consideration that the by-election may require an all-women shortlist, reflecting the current male majority within Labour’s parliamentary ranks. One NEC insider described the prospect of Burnham running as “the most insane scenario,” stating, “Just because he’s famous and popular he has to go through the same due diligence process. We would not allow any ordinary member to run in a by-election who has criticised the PM and the chancellor.” On the other hand, some within Labour question whether Burnham’s allies in Parliament could overturn an NEC decision against his candidacy.
Among Labour MPs, opinions differ widely on Burnham’s potential return to the House of Commons. Jo White, who leads the Red Wall group of Labour MPs, expressed that the party leadership should “let the North decide” on the candidate for the by-election, warning that a “London stitch up will be a disaster for Labour.” Another senior Labour MP, speaking anonymously, suggested Burnham might be the party’s “only hope of retaining the seat,” while others voiced concerns about the risks attached. Graham Stringer, MP for Blackley and Middleton South, acknowledged Burnham’s ambition but cautioned that this may not be the right occasion, highlighting the risks of by-elections for government candidates and the threat of giving Reform UK a chance to contest the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
Burnham himself has yet to confirm whether he will stand in the by-election, telling the BBC that people “shouldn’t rush to conclusions” and emphasizing his focus on his current role as mayor. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has refrained from commenting on Burnham’s potential candidacy, indicating that the NEC will oversee the selection process and commending Burnham’s performance as mayor. If Burnham is selected, he would still need to win the by-election at a time when Labour’s popularity is under pressure, though recent polling suggests the party could retain the seat. In the last general election, Gwynne won with a substantial 18,000 votes, with Reform UK and the Green Party trailing behind.
The political dynamics have attracted attention from other parties, as Reform UK leader Nigel Farage declared the by-election a genuine challenge amid the split opposition vote. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have also voiced their readiness to contest strongly, with the Green Party signaling a willingness to replace Labour altogether. Speculation has surfaced about Green Party of England and Wales leader Zack Polanski possibly standing as a candidate due to his regional ties, although his London residence might make his candidacy unlikely. Meanwhile, health minister Stephen Kinnock affirmed Burnham’s strengths as a leader while noting that the candidate selection will proceed as per standard party procedures
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