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Currently, a complex and intricate political journey is unfolding, with a marble delicately poised at the very top of a lengthy and winding track. If this marble travels all the way to the bottom, Andy Burnham could potentially become prime minister. However, it’s important not to jump to conclusions too quickly. The marble may never start its descent, or it could derail dramatically partway through.
There are numerous challenges and obstacles in the way of Greater Manchester’s mayor returning to Westminster as an MP—a necessary step if he is to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party. The first decision Burnham must make is whether he even wishes to enter this contest. On the positive side, the election is taking place within his home territory of Greater Manchester, triggered by the resignation of an MP due to medical issues, which makes any suggestion of political maneuvering less plausible.
Should Burnham decide to stand, he must first secure approval from the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC). According to the party’s rulebook, this committee’s explicit permission is required before directly-elected mayors can seek nomination as Labour candidates for parliamentary seats. The NEC might refuse permission, citing concerns about the cost and complexity of holding a mayoral by-election. Additionally, some within Labour would prefer Burnham to remain outside Westminster, partly due to disagreements over his approach to seeking the top party role. Yet, there remain many in the Labour movement who view him as a possible savior for a party and government currently facing significant difficulties.
If Burnham is denied this route—the marble effectively bouncing off the track—he still holds considerable influence and visibility. He could use his platform to challenge the prime minister from outside Parliament. But if he does stand in the by-election, it will draw significant attention. Although Andrew Gwynne secured the Gorton and Denton seat comfortably at the last general election, Labour’s popularity has sharply declined since then. Meanwhile, Reform UK and the Green Party, which finished second and third respectively last time, appear well placed to be serious competitors. Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage expressed enthusiasm about the contest, warning: “This by-election is by no means a certainty for Labour, the left-wing Greens will split their vote, and we will be the challenger. We will give it our all.”
Even with Burnham as Labour’s candidate, regaining the seat and returning to Westminster is far from guaranteed. It could represent a unique opportunity for him to make a political comeback in familiar territory, especially as speculation swirls within Labour about potential successors to the current prime minister. Should he win, it might coincide with poor electoral performances for Labour in Scotland, Wales, and various local contests. Entering the House of Commons at such a critical juncture could position Burnham as a contender for the party leadership, alongside others jockeying for influence. This lengthy and winding political marble run may well become a focal point of political drama in the months ahead
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More
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