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As Scotland approaches what many consider one of its most pivotal elections in recent times, Scottish Labour’s position appears challenging. Just a year and a half ago, following a decisive general election victory, Anas Sarwar harbored ambitions of leading Scotland from Bute House by May 2026. Fast forward to the present, and his party is struggling in the polls, potentially even at risk of falling further behind in third place. The upcoming election stands as a critical moment not only for Sarwar but also for the future of Scottish Labour itself, reflecting an almost existential crossroads.
Despite the dire polling figures, the tone within Scottish Labour is not one of despair. Conversations with party MPs and senior members reveal a resilience and cautious optimism. Interestingly, the morale difference is notable — those working with Sir Keir Starmer, who does not face a general election for another four years, seem less energized compared to those around Sarwar, who is directly accountable to voters in the coming months. This dynamic fuels a strategy grounded in meticulous, tactical campaigning, anticipating what could be one of the more closely contested Holyrood elections in the history of devolution.
At the start of the election year, Sarwar openly acknowledged the uphill battle he faces, stating he would need to win “in defiance” of the prevailing unpopularity of the UK government and prime minister. While some interpret this as an attempt to distance himself from Starmer, senior Scottish Labour insiders stress their understanding of the political landscape’s realities. They recognize that if the contest transforms into a referendum on Starmer or the Westminster government, Labour’s chances diminish. Hence, the strategy centers on shifting voter attention from the Conservative-led government to a critique of the SNP’s track record. Scottish Labour officials also reflect on their 2024 Westminster landslide victory as driven more by a broad rejection of the Conservatives’ 14-year tenure than an outright endorsement of Labour itself.
Scottish Labour’s electoral approach focuses on the two-thirds of voters who are not firmly in the pro-independence camp, currently estimated as about a third of the electorate. The party aims to appeal to those disillusioned with the SNP and looking for an alternative, persuading them that Labour is the best hope for removing the incumbents from power. This task grows more complex with the rise of Reform, a party surging in the polls to second place, siphoning off some of the anti-SNP vote. Labour strategists are exploring ways to work with Reform’s supporters, such as encouraging tactical voting, leveraging the Scottish Parliament’s mixed-member proportional system to maximize representation. Part of this strategy is inspired by the closely fought Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, where Labour emerged victorious by a small margin over both the SNP and Reform, thanks to a highly organized ground campaign that involved knocking on thousands of doors to secure votes.
In preparation for the election, Scottish Labour is investing heavily in both grassroots organization and media presence. The party sees Scotland’s 73 constituencies as individual battlegrounds where intense local campaigning could sway a few key votes to determine the overall outcome. Organizationally, they highlight the leadership of Kate Watson, the party general secretary and Sarwar’s former chief of staff, who is credited with strengthening the party’s electoral operations. Labour insiders emphasize that the party is no longer reliant on London for resources or expertise, boasting its own independent campaign infrastructure within Scotland. Financially, the party claims it can outspend the SNP, with Sarwar announcing a £1 million election fund and expectations of more substantial fundraising reports to come. Alongside traditional campaigning, Scottish Labour has revamped its online and social media strategy, creating polished video content and local candidate promotion to engage voters in the digital age.
Ultimately, while Labour hopes that meticulous strategy, solid organization, and significant funding will propel Sarwar into Bute House, many acknowledge the unpredictable nature of national elections. Success may rest on small margins and voter sentiments shaped by broader political moods, factors heavily influenced from Westminster. As one Scottish Labour MP noted, “It’s Sir Keir Starmer who determines that. From 10 Downing Street.”
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