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Flu remains a significant health threat each year, responsible for thousands of deaths and placing considerable pressure on healthcare systems during the winter months. Yet, this year’s flu season has drawn unusual attention, with media outlets and NHS England describing it as a “superflu” and “unprecedented.” Despite these claims, flu experts argue that this season is largely consistent with previous years, suggesting some of the alarm may be exaggerated.
Earlier in the season, concerns were raised about the possibility of one of the harshest flu outbreaks in a decade. Scientists monitoring influenza viruses worldwide identified seven new mutations within the H3N2 strain as early as June. This mutated variant, known as subclade-K, quickly became the predominant form of H3N2. The flu season in the UK started about a month earlier than usual, raising fears that the virus might spread more extensively, particularly since it was too late to update the current flu vaccine to address these changes. Nonetheless, subsequent developments showed the outbreak behaved more like a typical flu season than the feared “super flu.”
The spread of the H3N2 subclade-K virus has been comparable to previous flu seasons, albeit toward the higher end of the usual range. Professor Christophe Fraser from the University of Oxford notes that the virus spreads at a similar speed to past years. His team’s research, pending publication, indicates that the mutations might have enhanced the virus’s ability to evade immunity by around 5-10%, though it remains unclear if this effect applies universally or mainly to younger populations who have had less prior exposure to flu. While H3N2 strains typically cause more severe illness in older individuals, there is no clear evidence this year’s virus is causing more serious symptoms than expected. Initial assessments of the seasonal vaccine suggest it is performing about as well as in previous years, despite earlier concerns over a potential mismatch.
Although flu cases may be peaking, considerable uncertainty remains, especially with the upcoming holiday season, which could facilitate virus transmission among vulnerable groups. Furthermore, a different flu strain, H1N1, seems to be gaining momentum in Europe and could increase case numbers in the UK. Despite this, the characterization of this flu season as “unprecedented” or a “superflu” has been contested by experts. Professor Meghana Pandit of NHS England has termed it an “unprecedented wave of super flu,” a label that has drawn criticism for lacking scientific basis. The British Medical Association even suggests the heightened rhetoric may have been used to influence public opinion during doctors’ strike discussions.
Leading virologists reject the term “superflu,” emphasizing that this season’s flu virus is not notably different or more severe than usual. Professor Fraser describes the term as unhelpful, noting no unusual symptoms or exceptional spread. Similarly, Professor Nicola Lewis of the Francis Crick Institute reports no evidence supporting claims of a particularly unusual virus. Former deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam criticizes the term, referring to it as “rather silly.”
The discussion around the use of alarmist language continues with concerns over potential public desensitization. Dr. Simon Williams, a public health researcher at Swansea University, warns that the escalation in warnings—from “tripledemic” to “quademic” to “superflu”—risks a “cry wolf” effect. This could ultimately undermine public trust and reduce the effectiveness of health advice. He stresses the importance of finding a balance between raising awareness and avoiding overly fear-inducing messages. Virologist Professor Jonathan Ball echoes these concerns, cautioning that misuse of terms like “super flu” could diminish public response to future, legitimately severe outbreaks
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