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The Met Office has issued yellow weather warnings for heavy rainfall expected over the weekend, raising concerns about possible flooding and disruptions to transportation that could extend into the following week. Alongside the rain, temperatures are anticipated to drop, increasing the likelihood of snow on higher ground, particularly in northern Scotland, the Pennines in northern England, and elevated areas in Wales.
Following Friday’s severe gales affecting parts of Scotland, conditions are set to improve there, but overall weather remains unsettled. England and Wales are forecast to experience continued heavy rain and strong winds over the coming days. The precise path and intensity of the weather system remain somewhat uncertain, as forecasting models differ. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall is expected across much of England and Wales on Saturday, with a yellow warning active from 06:00 GMT until 23:59 GMT. The warning highlights potential rainfall amounts of 20-30mm broadly, with localized totals possibly reaching 50mm and, over higher terrain, a small chance of 60-80mm of rain.
Saturday will also bring a strong north to north-easterly wind that will intensify into Sunday, particularly affecting eastern England, where gusts might reach up to 50 mph. Although winds in other parts of the UK will be lighter, the northerly airflow will lead to colder conditions, with maximum temperatures on Sunday ranging between 3 and 9 degrees Celsius. In some regions of Scotland, temperatures may not rise above freezing throughout the day, resulting in what meteorologists call a ‘frost day.’ Additionally, wintry showers are expected in northern and eastern parts of Scotland. Although rain will ease by the end of Saturday, further wet weather is anticipated early next week, with additional yellow warnings for rain issued on Monday and Tuesday for southern England and Wales. These spells might bring localized flooding, accompanied by strong south-westerly winds.
Following the UK’s hottest summer on record and one of the driest springs, various areas faced drought conditions and implemented hosepipe bans. At the end of October, the National Drought Group convened, during which the Environment Agency emphasized the need for average or above-average rainfall through to the end of March to recover substantially from drought. Positive developments have since materialized, as recent months have brought near- or above-average rainfall across much of the UK. According to the Met Office Hadley Centre, rainfall levels by late November have been sufficient to improve the water situation.
On Thursday, Thames Water lifted its hosepipe ban, impacting approximately 1.1 million customers in Berkshire, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, and Wiltshire, citing above-average rainfall and successful water conservation efforts by consumers. Similarly, Yorkshire Water announced that its hosepipe ban is expected to conclude within the next few weeks, earlier than originally projected, thanks to the significant precipitation. In September, Yorkshire and other parts of northeast England recorded rainfall amounts exceeding 150% of the norm, with continued high levels leading up to late November. Yorkshire Water reported reservoir levels recovering to 84.6% full, up from 80.5% the previous week, with aquifer levels near Hull also rising from 46.6% to 49.4%. Helen Wakeham, chair of the National Drought Group, commented that while recent rain is encouraging, sustained rainfall over the next six months remains crucial to replenish rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater sources fully
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