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According to updated data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), net migration to the UK for last year was significantly lower than earlier reported, showing a 20% decrease. The figure, which represents the difference between those entering and leaving the country, was adjusted downward by 86,000 people. The most recent count for 2024 now stands at 345,000 arrivals.
A key reason for this revision is an increase in the estimated number of British nationals emigrating in 2024. It is now believed that 100,000 fewer British citizens are residing in the UK compared to previous estimates. Despite these changes, the overall net migration total between 2021 and 2024 remains largely unchanged, with a slight reduction from 2.6 million to 2.5 million people in the updated report.
These revisions coincide with government announcements introducing plans to reform the asylum process, including periodic assessments of asylum status and restrictions on migrants’ access to benefits. Since 2020, the ONS has been overhauling the method by which it calculates official migration estimates. Previously, migration figures were based on surveys with a small sample of passengers queried at airports and ports regarding their travel plans. However, this approach resulted in “implausibly low” figures for British nationals, as noted by Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory think tank.
The revised methodology relies on tracking individuals’ presence in tax and benefits records, offering a more precise and dynamic picture of migrant activity in the UK. Using this approach, the ONS estimates that 257,000 British nationals left the UK in 2024, while 143,000 returned from abroad, resulting in a net emigration of 114,000—considerably higher than the previous estimate of 17,000. Dr Sumption emphasizes that these numbers are “still not final,” as the method does not precisely capture the timing of arrivals and departures. This can lead to inaccuracies if, for example, someone remains in the UK but disappears from official tax and welfare records due to relying on savings. Due to such challenges, the ONS has abandoned this tax and benefits record approach for measuring EU migration, instead employing visa and border data from the Home Office. The old system had indicated a decrease of 96,000 EU citizens in the UK by the end of 2024, but this was revised to a reduction of 69,000 under the new system.
In related developments, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced major changes to the asylum system, describing it as “out of control and unfair.” Speaking in the House of Commons, she stated, “If we fail to deal with this crisis, we will draw more people down a path that starts with anger and ends in hatred.
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