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In the period leading up to March 2025, there was a significant uptick in referrals to the government’s anti-terror initiative, Prevent, as revealed by recent data. The total number of referrals reached a record high of 8,778, marking a 27% increase from the previous year’s figure of 6,922. Of the referrals where specific concerns were noted, the majority, amounting to 56%, were for individuals without any identified ideology.
Following a tragic incident in Southport involving the killing of three children in July 2024, there was a notable surge in Prevent referrals related to concerns about violent fixation. The inquiry into the incident disclosed that Axel Rudakubana, the perpetrator, had been referred to Prevent on three separate occasions. However, it was noted during the inquiry that Rudakubana’s case was closed prematurely due to a lack of evidence pointing towards a fixed ideology, prompting the resignation of Prevent’s head, Michael Stewart, in March.
The most frequent basis for referrals during the year leading up to March was right-wing ideology at 21%, followed by Islamist extremism at 10% – mirroring the trends observed in the previous year. Data showed that individuals aged 11-15 made up the largest proportion of referrals among known age groups, accounting for 36%. Additionally, children aged 16-17 constituted 13% of the referrals, with a smaller portion of 4% comprising children under the age of 10. The data also indicated that approximately a third of referrals involved individuals with mental health conditions or who were neurodiverse.
Lord David Anderson KC, the independent Prevent commissioner, highlighted a surge in referrals nationwide following increased publicity surrounding Rudakubana’s case. He also mentioned the impact of the television series Adolescence, released in March 2025, as potentially contributing to the rise in referrals. Prevent, a crucial component of the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy, imposes a legal obligation on public institutions such as schools and law enforcement to identify individuals who may be vulnerable to extremist ideologies
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