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The Atlantic hurricane season has seen Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensify near Bermuda before making a sharp turn towards the Azores. While the storm is expected to weaken over cooler waters, western Europe may still experience severe weather conditions. Gabrielle is only the second major hurricane of the season, forming in the mid tropical Atlantic less than a week ago.
Although there have been more tropical storms and hurricanes in the east Pacific this season, the Atlantic basin is now entering its peak period of hurricane activity. Gabrielle became a major hurricane on Monday, reaching category 4 status with sustained winds over 135mph (217km/h). The National Hurricane Center believes the storm has peaked in intensity, with wind shear likely weakening it.
Gabrielle is forecasted to move north of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure, picking up speed in stronger westerly winds. Despite increasing wind shear and cooler waters, the storm is expected to maintain hurricane status as it approaches the Azores, potentially bringing large waves up to 6 meters high. After impacting the Azores, the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle are expected to head towards mainland Europe, bringing heavy rain and strong winds.
Predicting the path of a hurricane several days in advance can be challenging due to the disruption they cause in the atmosphere. Climate change may further complicate predictions as hurricanes become more intense and slow-moving. However, computer models are now showing more agreement in forecasting the remnants of Gabrielle hitting Portugal on Sunday, with the possibility of disruptive weather including heavy rain, strong winds, and large waves.
While Portugal may experience the effects of Hurricane Gabrielle, it appears that the UK will be spared from the storm’s impact. High pressure over the UK is expected to bring dry and mild conditions, with some rain possible on Friday night and Saturday before clearing out on Sunday. Eastern parts of the UK are likely to stay dry throughout the weekend, and updates on the forecast track of Gabrielle can be found on the BBC weather app
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