Why weather forecasters often get it wrong – or appear to

Why weather forecasters often get it wrong – or appear to

A couple enjoying the sun on Blackpool beach, as seen in an image from Getty Images

Other suggestions include creating more visually appealing and interactive forecasts. For example, internet weather data company Climate Corporation provides agricultural clients with specific, pinpointed forecasts using maps and graphs, among other tools.

Dr Hosking also suggests forecasters should take a leaf out of the gaming industry. Making weather apps more interactive could help people grasp the uncertainty of the predictions better.

It’s an area the BBC Weather team has looked at too.

Earlier this year they introduced something they call “probability sliders” on their website. If you’re wondering how reliable the forecast is, you can adjust the slider to see how certain the weather team is of their prediction.

A map showing a heatwave in the UK, provided by the UK Met OfficeUK Met Office

A map showing a heatwave in the UK, provided by the UK Met Office

Critics might question the need for these changes. Are they cosmetic, designed to make something that’s not an exact science more user-friendly?

Many of the UK’s forecasters are aware they have to evolve, not only for viewers, but because the science of meteorology itself is forever changing. New supercomputers, updated models and a seemingly endless array of new data points mean the forecast of yesteryear might not be as accurate as the one broadcast today.

For some, this is all part of the weather-oriented industry’s “ongoing conversation” about what the forecast could look like in the future.

“There’s this sense [in meteorology] that we’re in a state of continuous improvement,” Dr Hosking says. “We’ll never hit the end game, where we’re as accurate as we can be. It means there’s always a need to adapt and change.”

Andy Watts is a senior journalist on the BBC News Features team.

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