A recent forecast by Capital on Tap predicts that 57% of pubs and clubs in London will cease operations by 2030. The report, titled “The UK’s Nightlife Report,” assessed various cities in the UK to analyze the current demand for nightlife establishments and forecast the industry’s future state in five years.
The analysis was based on data collected from the rate of closures observed between 2022 and 2025 in each city, national trend forecasts, local searches for nightlife venues, and the ratio of existing venues to population. This data indicates that London is expected to experience a significant decline, with over half of its pubs and clubs expected to close by 2030.
With 8,457 pubs and clubs currently in London, Capital on Tap estimates that this number will decrease to 3,617 in the next five years. Despite a slower decline rate in London since 2022, at 17.79%, the ratio of pubs and clubs to population is notably low, with only 1.5 nightclubs and 9.7 pubs per 10,000 residents.
While London faces challenges in its nightlife sector, other cities seem to have even more concerning outlooks. According to the report, Bristol is projected to lose 61.33% of its pubs and clubs, Brighton 64.06%, and Leeds 65.14%. Leicester is anticipated to be the most impacted, with a predicted 65.85% closure rate for its pubs and clubs by 2030. In contrast, Manchester stands out positively in the forecast, with Capital On Tap identifying it as having the highest demand for nightlife among the surveyed UK cities. Despite a closure rate of 13.03% since 2022, Manchester has a monthly search volume for pubs and clubs of 63,810, or 1,613 per 10,000 residents
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