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The United Kingdom’s population is projected to hit 72.5 million by 2032, with net migration as the primary driver of growth, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The projection represents a 7.3% increase in the country’s population between 2022 and 2032, largely due to a net migration of 4.9 million. While the number of births and deaths is expected to be roughly equal, there will be an additional 1.7 million pensioners by 2032.
The ONS also assumed that, from 2028, net migration would average 340,000 people per year, an increase of 25,000 from previous forecasts but still lower than current levels. Net migration hit a record of 906,000 people in the year ending June 2023, before it fell to 728,000 in the year ending June 2024. After continuing to decline until 2028, net migration will then remain at the long-term average of 340,000 people per year.
England is expected to experience the largest population increase, with a projected rise of 7.8% compared to 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland, and 2.1% for Northern Ireland. The ONS projected that the natural change in population, the number of births and deaths, will be around zero. This is due to rising death rates caused by a large number of people born in the post-World-War-II era reaching old ages.
The projections also reveal an increasingly aging population and suggest there could be fewer children due to lower rates of fertility. The number of deaths is projected to overtake births by the middle of 2029, making net migration the only source of population growth. If there were no immigration or a significant increase in babies being born, the population would shrink, with subsequent impacts on economic growth and the availability of care for elderly people.
The ONS warned that the recent figures were projections, not predictions or forecasts. It emphasised that actual numbers could differ from projected ones. The Home Office said that the figures were based on historical net migration data over ten years. Despite describing migration as “staggeringly high”, the government has ruled out imposing an “arbitrary” cap. It has said it intends to significantly reduce levels of migration by setting out a “comprehensive plan” for “restoring order to our broken immigration system
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