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According to the Environment Agency (EA), around eight million properties in England, equivalent to one in four, could be at risk of flooding by 2050. The EA’s first-ever review of how the changing climate could affect flooding warns of increased threats arising from heavier rainfall and rising sea levels. The number of properties at risk could be higher if further houses are built on floodplains but could be lower should flood defences be enhanced. The current estimate for at-risk properties is 6.3 million.
The EA considers flooding from three main sources: the sea, rivers and surface water, where heavy rainfall overcomes drainage systems. The EA defines properties as “at risk” when the yearly possibility of flooding is over 1 in 1,000. At present, London is the most affected area, and 4.6 million homes are at risk from surface flooding. Although this figure is a 43% increase on previous assessments, this results predominantly from improved datasets and computer modelling techniques, rather than from a real-world increase in flooding risk.
The EA warns that climate change could raise the number of properties at risk of surface flooding to approximately 6.1 million by 2050. It is well-known that a warming world generally increases the intensity of heavy rainfall. Worldwide, sea levels are increasing mainly due to melting ice sheets and glaciers and the fact that warmer water takes up more space. Most of the 50cm rise in average sea levels around the UK since 1900 has occurred since 1990.
Earlier this year, a parliamentary committee warned that the UK is poorly prepared for the consequences of climate change. In response to the EA report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy admitted that “too many communities are exposed to the dangers of flooding”. She pledged that the UK government had committed £2.4bn over the next two years towards flood defence maintenance, repair and development to protect those at risk of flooding across the country
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