The Conservative Party is facing an uncertain future as members begin to contemplate what lies ahead. Despite Rishi Sunak remaining as party leader in the short-term, many are tipping him to step down within the next few months. This would give the Tories the summer period to decide on who their next leader should be. However, the problem is that the rules governing the leadership contest need to be determined by the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs, a group that currently has no members.
Next week, the 1922 committee is expected to decide who will sit on its executive, followed by the development of a timetable for the leadership contest. In the meantime, Conservative members are debating how long their party should take to choose Mr. Sunak’s replacement. Supporters of a longer process have pointed to the example set in 2005, when Michael Howard remained as leader for some months before David Cameron emerged triumphant.
However, others believe that a quicker period of debate is necessary, citing the period in 2010 when Labour chose Ed Miliband as their new leader. During this time, the incoming Conservative government had already set the narrative about the need for austerity and Miliband was seen to be playing catch up. Mr. Sunak has stated that he remains willing to perform all the duties of party leader for the time being, including holding Prime Minister’s Questions and interrogating Sir Keir Starmer.
Those concerned about the speed of the leadership contest are anticipating a Budget in September and believe a replacement for Mr. Sunak should be found by then. This would also allow the new leader to make an appearance at the party conference later that month. The race for the leadership post is already underway, with former home secretary Suella Braverman putting her name forward before the general election and former security minister Tom Tugendhat hosting a birthday party that some insiders believe could involve politicking.
For some within the party, there are more pressing matters to attend to. One former cabinet minister who lost their seat in the general election is philosophical, describing the defeat as, “all a bump in the road when viewed from a greater distance”. However, for the Conservatives, the road ahead looks rocky as they prepare to embark on a period of soul-searching to determine what comes next for the party
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