Scotland’s calls for independence may have changed in tone, but they have not disappeared. Today, the Scottish National Party (SNP) presents a much softer independence narrative, shifting its focus from freedom and nationhood to practical solutions to economic hardship and inequality. In this general election, the SNP faces a resurgent Labour Party hoping to gain two dozen seats and form the next UK government, posing a threat to the nationalists’ decade-long dominance of Scottish politics. Polls suggest a growing number of Scottish voters share concerns about issues such as high prices and poor public services, which may put the SNP’s popularity and support for independence in question.
John Swinney – the leader of the SNP – says that if the SNP wins a majority of Scottish seats in the House of Commons in this election, it will provide a mandate for a new referendum on independence. However, both Labour and the Conservatives have challenged this idea as a non-starter. The report highlights that support for Scottish independence has not declined in recent years, remaining steady at relatively high levels (around 45%). Yet, Scottish support for the SNP has diminished, with the slide in the polls starting in 2021. Meanwhile, both Labour and the SNP have portrayed themselves as the only path to stability in the UK.
Critically, to regain advantage in Scotland, Labour must gain the support of pro-independence voters who switched to the SNP during the referendum. The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is hopeful that Scottish seats can help him win a parliamentary majority and become the prime minister. However, even as polls suggest that Keir Starmer is on course for a landslide victory without the need for Scottish seats, both he and the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, have been trying to avoid discussing the constitution, focusing instead on their plans to restore stability to the UK.
The article also identifies that the SNP’s power story has lost its appeal, and Labour hopes that success at this election will be a springboard for the next Scottish parliamentary poll in 2026. If Labour regains control, it will be its first time in 19 years. Whether voters are keen on the SNP’s moderate narrative or the Labour leader’s plans to cushion economic hardship, the Scottish independence question will continue to be a key issue in Scottish politics, made more complicated by the fact that the Scottish parliament does not have the lawful authority to hold a referendum without the UK parliament’s consent
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