With the United Kingdom’s last general election nearly five years ago, a lot has happened over that time. Three specific events have their own place in history: the global pandemic, the UK’s departure from the European Union, and the war in Ukraine. The effects of these events have been deep and lasting, having an impact on life and politics in Scotland and across the globe. This article explores what impact these events might have on the outcome of the next election.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on public health and introduced the most extreme restrictions on civil liberties in peacetime. Although there were varying opinions on the rights and wrongs of lockdowns, they were supported by all four large UK political parties. The pandemic overwhelmed the National Health Service (NHS) and exposed existing problems with shortcomings in staffing and suitable facilities for effective infection control. Despite the efforts to tackle the virus, many people’s treatment was delayed, resulting in worsening health and additional conditions. The NHS across Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland operated as four separate systems, with devolution meaning the upcoming election will not directly shape policy in areas such as healthcare or education.
Brexit, which occurred an hour before midnight on 31 January 2020, was a massive change since the last general election and had long-lasting impacts. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by significant margins to remain in the European Union, whereas England and Wales opted to leave. The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will and has reduced productivity per worker and cut both imports and exports by 15%.
Lastly, the war in Ukraine has implications across Europe. At the opening of hostilities in 2014, the previous UK government declared a “long-term commitment to Ukraine’s stability, security and prosperity.” As of 2021, the UK government helps Ukraine by delivering “political and economic policy advice” and raising awareness of the Ukrainian situation among other European Union member nations. The war in Ukraine will undoubtedly have lasting effects, including ongoing debates around the setting and distribution of defense budgets.
In conclusion, these three major events have had deep and lasting impacts on life and politics across Scotland and the UK as a whole. These events will undoubtedly play a role in the upcoming election, with voters potentially using the occasion to pass judgment on Covid-related matters, Brexit, and foreign policy. Ultimately, the specific outcomes are a matter for each voter to decide
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