On Thursday, voters in England and Wales will have the opportunity to participate in local elections, assuming they are on the electoral roll and choose to exercise their right to vote. The elections will include the race for 2,660 council seats, with the Conservatives and Labour defending a similar number of seats, just under 1,000 each, and the Liberal Democrats and Green Party defending just over 400 and just over 100, respectively.
The Conservatives, under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, were riding high in popularity during the last local elections in 2021, which coincided with the Westminster by-election in Hartlepool that led to a Conservative gain over Labour and a low point for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Conservative expectations are that they will perform poorly in this year’s elections, although the question remains just how poorly.
The results of Thursday’s elections will not only have a direct impact on the elected officials running local councils, but will also be used to measure the popularity of the Conservative and Labour parties, the only two likely to lead a UK government. For the Conservatives, a “cataclysmic” result could lead to a critical mass of Tory MPs becoming willing to topple Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who will be closely watching the races for mayor. Two contests stand out in particular: the West Midlands and Tees Valley, both currently held by the Conservatives but highly contested by Labour.
While this year’s elections feature fewer local authorities than last year’s, with only 107 councils holding elections, there will still be plenty of interest in the results. A few key places to watch include Hartlepool, Redditch, Milton Keynes, and Hyndburn for Labour and Dorset, Nuneaton, Gloucester, and Blackpool South, the one contested Westminster seat, for the Conservatives. In addition, the Liberal Democrats are looking to gain in Wokingham, Dorset, and Tunbridge Wells, while the Green Party hopes to make gains in Bristol, Solihull, and Stroud
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