On Thursday, 20 million English voters across 10 regions will be voting for metro mayors, a position that did not exist before 2017. These local politicians have now become national figures with Labour potentially sweeping all 10 contests. They may even win the first-ever elected mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire, which is Rishi Sunak’s home turf. This could potentially hasten the end of Sunak’s premiership if the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, Ben Houchen, and his West Midlands counterpart, Andy Street, lose their positions.
Devolution is proving to be successful. Their policies include Steve Rotheram’s high-speed broadband plan for Liverpool and Andy Burnham’s franchising of buses to tackle decades of deregulation. Rotheram, Burnham and West Yorkshire’s Tracy Brabin collectively form a powerful northern voice that balances the south. Research conducted by the More in Common thinktank indicates that mayoral races are not a reflection of national politics. For example, the battle between independent candidate Jamie Driscoll and Kim McGuinness from Labour to become the north-east mayor is currently too close to call. Driscoll resigned from Labour after being suspended as a candidate, benefiting from his outsider status.
If Labour’s Sadiq Khan is re-elected for a third term as London’s mayor, he will make history. It would also stop his Conservative opponent, Susan Hall, from winning. Hall’s campaign is disreputable, trading in disinformation, endorsing racist social media posts and being forced to delete fake video footage. The contest may be narrower than suggested by the polls. The Tories have undermined democratic competition with a biased playing field, replacing the supplementary vote electoral system with first past the post and introducing voter ID requirements. These changes may exclude many of Labour’s core voters.
Hall’s two main lines of attack are centred around crime and the extension of London’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez). In difficult economic times, crime can exacerbate and the extension of Ulez can cause financial hardship for drivers. However, in extending the scheme to outer London, Khan hurt his supporters the most. Despite being perceived as Khan’s Achilles heel, Ulez’s electoral effect may be outweighed by his free school meals policy which 70% of Londoners support. Nevertheless, for the sake of a better governed country, Sir Keir Starmer believes that there should be more conversation about power and democracy. Metro mayors have won the right to work with central government to redesign local services but need more say over their funding. Westminster must avoid crushing alternative power centres because this strategy leaves a larger gap for national politics to fill
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