The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has yet to confirm whether they will accept a proposal from the government to return to Stormont. Despite this, some potential outlines of a deal have started to surface. Following their protest against Northern Ireland’s Brexit deal, now known as the Windsor Framework, the DUP wishes to eliminate the “Irish Sea border” between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Although this is unlikely to happen, the government has proposed measures to combat the impact of the sea border.
The existence of the Irish Sea border is flexible, as Northern Ireland remains in the EU’s single market for goods while the rest of the UK has left. Consequently, new controls and checks are necessary for certain goods coming from Great Britain. While Great Britain initially had the same regulations as those of the EU, divergence between the two will arise as they update their rules.
The government is offering to screen all new UK laws to confirm that they will not further increase the impact of the sea border. This would restrict active divergence from the EU. It is unclear whether or not the government will actively align with the EU’s rules as they update them. It may do this as it promised in 2019 to keep Great Britain and Northern Ireland’s rules consistent in all areas governed by the protocol.
One of Boris Johnson’s few promises that the government has kept is that there will be no new paperwork for goods travelling from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. In December 2021, the government pledged to legislate to fortify “unfettered access” for Northern Ireland goods. The Windsor Framework also contains clauses that should smooth out paperwork requirements for Northern Ireland goods that are moving to Great Britain via Republic of Ireland ports.
To simplify the “green lane,” a key feature of the Windsor Framework and one of the areas for which the DUP seeks change, easements can only be found within the boundaries of the agreement. For instance, reducing the identity check of 10% of food consignments going through the green lane to 5% by July 2025 could be expedited or phased out further. The green lane may be renamed the “UK Internal Market Lane,” as the Daily Telegraph suggests.
Lastly, the government cannot guarantee Northern Ireland’s position in the UK definitively due to the Good Friday Agreement, which stipulates that Northern Ireland’s membership in the union is conditional. Nevertheless, any deal related to the return of the DUP to Stormont will come with new pro-union frameworks based on some of the all-Ireland structures that resulted from the Good Friday Agreement. These might include a political “East-West Council” and another business body akin to Intertrade Ireland, which supports small businesses in cross-border markets
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