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Recent days have seen UK political discussions take on a notably Scottish tone. While the Scottish National Party (SNP) convened for its annual conference at the Event Complex near Aberdeen, the Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch, was traveling in Paisley and Edinburgh, and the Prime Minister made an appearance in Motherwell. The SNP remains optimistic, gathering for the first time since their victory in May’s Scottish Parliament election, which marked their fifth consecutive win despite a reduced number of seats compared to 2021. The upcoming year will also highlight two decades of SNP governance at Holyrood.
This upbeat mood contrasts sharply with the SNP’s position just two years ago when the party suffered a heavy defeat in the 2024 general election, losing 36 seats to Labour. Critics have previously targeted the SNP for what they perceive as poor domestic policy outcomes, particularly concerning the NHS and drug-related deaths. In response, the SNP points out Scotland’s higher police density per capita compared to England and Wales and the highest per-pupil educational spending in the UK. The results of the May election provided a clear mandate for SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney, a fact reflected in the conference brochure featuring a smiling Swinney holding a glass of whisky. This resilience comes despite the party having to cope not only with electoral setbacks but also scandals, such as the imprisonment of former party chief executive Peter Murrell, who embezzled over £400,000.
Looking forward, Swinney is focused on the new parliamentary term and engaging with a freshly appointed Prime Minister. Both men agree that greater political power should be devolved closer to the people, criticizing Westminster’s shortcomings. However, the Prime Minister regards the ongoing Scottish independence debate as a distraction. For Swinney, the pursuit of independence remains a lifelong commitment, and recent interactions have revealed the tension and potential for cooperation between the two leaders. Critics within the SNP have viewed the Prime Minister’s devolution proposals with suspicion, considering them to bear an English approach. Nonetheless, during a visit to New College Lanarkshire, the Prime Minister outlined a vision for regional economic empowerment in Scotland, emphasizing collaboration even amid disagreements. Proposals have included devolving some employment support powers currently managed by the Department of Work and Pensions, though claims of Scotland’s centralization have been contested by Swinney.
In response, Scotland’s First Minister has expressed a desire to expand regional roles in managing skills, economic development, and planning, acknowledging a similarity to English regional combined authorities but without elected mayors. The political rivalry between Labour and SNP adds complexity to how these ideas will materialize going forward. Meanwhile, SNP activists have seized on the Prime Minister’s reflections on Brexit to argue for a new independence referendum, drawing parallels between revisiting the 2016 EU referendum and the 2014 independence vote. Comments from SNP MP Chris Law and the Prime Minister suggesting a future referendum could be held if public demand arises have been seen by some as reflective of the Prime Minister’s true stance, despite official denials and a desire to move beyond the independence debate. Internally, senior SNP members recognize that the authority to call another referendum lies with Westminster, which remains opposed, prompting the party to focus on building support through governance.
Within the SNP, a new group called “Independence” has been created to push forward the cause. Speaking at its launch, former Policy Convener Toni Giugliano emphasized that nations achieve independence not by seeking permission but when popular support becomes irresistible and a broad consensus for change is formed. Giugliano also stressed the importance of addressing fundamental questions about Scotland’s future as an independent state, including decisions on currency and pensions. While these long-term issues persist, the immediate political focus remains on the timing of the next general election. Energized by their recent Holyrood victory, the SNP is keenly aware of Labour’s vulnerabilities, particularly in constituencies Labour wrested from them during the previous general election
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