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New research highlights that England will require rainfall levels above the average for the next seven months to recover fully from the ongoing drought by spring 2027. According to the Environment Agency (EA), despite experiencing some wet weather during early September, almost 75% of the country remains in drought conditions after an exceptionally dry spring and summer, coupled with several heatwaves.
The EA reports that approximately 120% of normal rainfall is essential between now and April to bring all regions out of drought. Even the most optimistic scenario, which anticipates a wetter than usual autumn following forecasts from the Met Office, suggests that areas like Devon and Cornwall, as well as East Anglia, may still be drought-affected by spring 2027. Other projections estimate about a 25% chance that half of England will still be enduring drought conditions next spring, though the likelihood of severe drought in the coming months remains only around 1%.
Recent rainfall has provided limited relief, but groundwater levels continue to be low. Reservoir storage across England was recorded at just under 57% last week, which is nearly 20% below the typical level for this time of year. Environment Agency Chief Executive Philip Duffy commented on the gravity of the situation: “The drought situation remains very serious, and we cannot underestimate the challenge ahead over the coming months. A few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit we face from the very dry spring and summer. We still need everyone to use a little less water to speed up the drought recovery.”
The dry conditions and water scarcity are not limited to England. Scotland’s east coast is also suffering, with four regions now experiencing significant water scarcity, defined as river flows remaining below low flow thresholds for 30 consecutive days. Wales remains entirely in drought status. While some rain is expected in the short term, it is unlikely to be sufficient to alleviate the drought across much of the UK. The Met Office forecasts showers and blustery conditions over the coming days, with drier weather anticipated to return later in September. Additionally, the ongoing El Niño event, currently near record levels, is likely to bring wetter and stormier weather to the UK in late autumn and early winter, which could aid drought recovery but also carries the risk of flooding. The Environment Agency notes that floodwater often contains high sediment and nitrate levels, making it challenging to use for public water supplies
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More
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