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The prime minister has long intended to announce that hundreds of criminals, who would otherwise have qualified for early release, will remain in custody. This move follows efforts by Andy Burnham to broaden the list of offenders ineligible for early discharge, with Burnham himself expressing a desire to extend these restrictions even further. However, the precise reasons that have now enabled this step remain somewhat unclear.
Earlier in the month, the Ministry of Justice cautioned that increasing the number of prisoners exempt from early release could lead to prison overcrowding and potential system collapse. The prime minister had previously stated that he had “pushed to the very limits of what is possible.” In an exclusive interview on BBC Breakfast, Burnham highlighted two developments as key to enabling his recent measures: stopping the release of offenders serving controversial indefinite sentences and facilitating the deportation of foreign criminals. Additionally, it is understood that plans to increase capacity by constructing new prison cells within existing buildings will commence immediately, though these actions provide no quick fixes.
In fact, there are significant delays expected before the full impact of these measures can be realized. Ending indefinite sentences would require legislative changes, a process likely to take years. Deporting foreign offenders has historically proven difficult, with no new agreements currently established; for example, Pakistan’s refusal to accept the return of grooming gang leader Shabir Ahmed illustrates these challenges. Meanwhile, repurposing prison facilities to add cells is also anticipated to require several months. Government insiders acknowledge that in the near term, Burnham’s announcement may only be feasible by tolerating even more crowded prisons, with the adult male prison population already reaching 98% capacity—a situation some in the sector find concerning.
Despite these obstacles, the prime minister considered this step necessary. Officials describe the expanded exemptions as a “political decision,” reflecting the mounting public pressure, particularly following the potential early release of the killers of PC Andrew Harper. Burnham’s advisors note that Sir Keir Starmer’s early missteps regarding policies such as freebies and winter fuel payments inflicted lasting political damage, and they argue that Burnham’s smoother handling of issues during his first six weeks marks a more polished approach. Downing Street was reportedly surprised at the intense media focus on early release over the summer, reinforcing the appeal of moving into a new parliamentary term where news cycles are busier and stories less likely to dominate headlines for long.
After initial uncertainty about whether more prisoners could be exempted, PC Harper’s mother criticized the government’s handling of the issue as a “hash.” Officials working on the policy have engaged with victims’ families, who expressed a preference for a single comprehensive announcement rather than piecemeal leaks. It was initially expected that the justice secretary would make the statement in Parliament on Tuesday, yet the prime minister chose to announce it himself during a BBC Breakfast interview. This decision aimed to quell speculation and provide clarity to victims and the public as soon as possible, but it risked aggravating Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House, who typically disapproves of major governmental announcements outside parliamentary channels. Additionally, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch criticized Burnham as a “people pleaser,” implying he struggles to say no.
Further scrutiny is expected as stories emerge about offenders who will still be released early, with the domestic abuse commissioner already voicing “deep concern about the number of abusers” due for release. Although Burnham has previously claimed to have pushed the system as far as possible, sources within Whitehall are now firm that no additional exemptions will be made
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