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The weather in the UK is expected to become more unsettled this week, with rain returning and the possibility of thunderstorms and localized flooding. While some areas may start to experience showery weather by Tuesday, it is from Wednesday onward that more persistent and widespread rainfall will move in from the south. This wet spell will provide some relief to drought-affected parts of the country, although the rainfall will need to be more substantial before drought conditions significantly improve.
Early in the week, most locations will see relatively dry weather continuing through Monday. However, a low-pressure system arriving from the southwest on Tuesday will bring scattered showers to southern England and south Wales. By midweek, heavy rain showers accompanied by thunder are expected to spread across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while Scotland is likely to stay largely dry. The risk of intense downpours, hail, and thunderstorms will increase from Wednesday to Friday, particularly in southern England and Wales, where the combination of heavy rain falling onto dry and compacted ground could lead to local flooding in some areas.
Despite the welcome rainfall, the impact on drought conditions will take time. Although river levels and soil moisture will see some improvement, full recovery of reservoirs and catchments requires sustained and cumulative rainfall over a longer period. The British Geological Survey (BGS) points out that a drought officially ends only when rainfall, soil moisture, river, and groundwater levels return to typical seasonal norms. Encouragingly, groundwater and aquifers have remained relatively resilient during the current drought, with only about 23% of the surveyed sites nationwide showing notably low levels.
Alongside the changing precipitation, temperatures are forecast to rise again as warmer air moves in from southern Europe. By Wednesday, temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland could reach around 20°C, while parts of southern England and Wales may see highs close to 29°C. This warmer spell is predicted to be brief, with no return to heatwave conditions expected before the end of August. Looking further ahead, some weather models suggest that higher pressure may build during the second week of September, potentially bringing another surge of warm air to the UK, chiefly affecting southern England
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